从 COVID-19 到猴痘:新出现传染病的新型预测模型。

IF 4 3区 生物学 Q1 MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY Biodata Mining Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI:10.1186/s13040-024-00396-8
Deren Xu, Weng Howe Chan, Habibollah Haron, Hui Wen Nies, Kohbalan Moorthy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

新发传染病的爆发给全球公共卫生带来了重大挑战。准确的早期预测对于有效的资源分配和应急计划至关重要。本研究旨在开发一种针对新发传染病的综合预测模型,将混合框架、迁移学习、增量学习和生物特征 Rt 整合在一起,以提高预测的准确性和实用性。通过将 COVID-19 数据集的特征转移到猴痘数据集,并引入动态更新的增量学习技术,该模型在数据稀缺情况下的预测能力得到了显著提高。研究结果表明,混合框架在短期(7 天)预测中表现优异。此外,迁移学习和增量学习技术的结合大大提高了适应性和精确度,均方根误差(RMSE)提高了 91.41%,均方根误差(MAE)提高了 89.13%。特别是 Rt 特征的加入,使模型能够更准确地反映疾病传播的动态,进一步将 RMSE 提高了 1.91%,MAE 提高了 2.17%。这项研究强调了多模型融合和实时数据更新在传染病预测中的巨大应用潜力,提供了新的理论视角和技术支持。这项研究不仅丰富了传染病预测模型的理论基础,也为公共卫生应急响应提供了可靠的技术支持。未来的研究应继续探索整合多源数据,增强模型泛化能力,进一步提高预测工具的实用性和可靠性。
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From COVID-19 to monkeypox: a novel predictive model for emerging infectious diseases.

The outbreak of emerging infectious diseases poses significant challenges to global public health. Accurate early forecasting is crucial for effective resource allocation and emergency response planning. This study aims to develop a comprehensive predictive model for emerging infectious diseases, integrating the blending framework, transfer learning, incremental learning, and the biological feature Rt to increase prediction accuracy and practicality. By transferring features from a COVID-19 dataset to a monkeypox dataset and introducing dynamically updated incremental learning techniques, the model's predictive capability in data-scarce scenarios was significantly improved. The research findings demonstrate that the blending framework performs exceptionally well in short-term (7-day) predictions. Furthermore, the combination of transfer learning and incremental learning techniques significantly enhanced the adaptability and precision, with a 91.41% improvement in the RMSE and an 89.13% improvement in the MAE. In particular, the inclusion of the Rt feature enabled the model to more accurately reflect the dynamics of disease spread, further improving the RMSE by 1.91% and the MAE by 2.17%. This study underscores the significant application potential of multimodel fusion and real-time data updates in infectious disease prediction, offering new theoretical perspectives and technical support. This research not only enriches the theoretical foundation of infectious disease prediction models but also provides reliable technical support for public health emergency responses. Future research should continue to explore integrating data from multiple sources and enhancing model generalization capabilities to further enhance the practicality and reliability of predictive tools.

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来源期刊
Biodata Mining
Biodata Mining MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY-
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
28
审稿时长
23 weeks
期刊介绍: BioData Mining is an open access, open peer-reviewed journal encompassing research on all aspects of data mining applied to high-dimensional biological and biomedical data, focusing on computational aspects of knowledge discovery from large-scale genetic, transcriptomic, genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data. Topical areas include, but are not limited to: -Development, evaluation, and application of novel data mining and machine learning algorithms. -Adaptation, evaluation, and application of traditional data mining and machine learning algorithms. -Open-source software for the application of data mining and machine learning algorithms. -Design, development and integration of databases, software and web services for the storage, management, retrieval, and analysis of data from large scale studies. -Pre-processing, post-processing, modeling, and interpretation of data mining and machine learning results for biological interpretation and knowledge discovery.
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