ECG-based risk factors for adverse cardiopulmonary events and treatment outcomes in COPD.

Background: COPD has high mortality, compounded by comorbid cardiovascular disease. We investigated two electrocardiogram (ECG) markers, Cardiac Infarction Injury Score (CIIS) and P pulmonale, as prognostic tools for adverse cardiopulmonary events in COPD.

Methods: Post hoc analysis of the IMPACT trial. Outcomes included odds (odds ratio [95% confidence intervals]) of adverse cardiopulmonary events stratified by CIIS threshold (<20/≥20) and P pulmonale (baseline). Events included all-cause death, hospitalisation/death, cardiovascular adverse event of special interest (CVAESI), severe COPD exacerbations, and moderate/severe COPD exacerbations. Effects of fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) versus FF/VI or UMEC/VI based on CIIS and P pulmonale were also assessed.

Results: We included 9448 patients. Patients with CIIS ≥20 had greater odds of all-cause death (1.73[1.27-2.37]; p<0.001), hospitalisation/death (1.33[1.17-1.50]; p<0.001), CVAESI (1.27[1.08-1.48]; p<0.005), severe COPD exacerbations (1.41[1.21-1.64]; p<0.001) and moderate/severe COPD exacerbations (1.25[1.13-1.40]; p<0.001) versus CIIS <20. Patients with P pulmonale (versus without) had greater odds of all-cause death (2.25[1.54-3.29]; p<0.001), hospitalisation/death (1.51[1.28-1.79]; p<0.001), severe COPD exacerbations (2.00[1.65-2.41]; p<0.001) and moderate/severe COPD exacerbations (1.25[1.08-1.46]; p<0.001). A combined model demonstrated patients with CIIS ≥20 and P pulmonale had increased risk of all-cause death (3.38[1.23-9.30]; p=0.019), hospitalisation/death (1.61[1.14-2.22]; p=0.004), and rate of severe COPD exacerbations (1.89[1.22-2.91]; p=0.004) and moderate/severe COPD exacerbations (1.25[1.00-1.56]; p=0.046). The risk of all-cause death and CVAESI was reduced with FF/UMEC/VI versus UMEC/VI in patients with CIIS ≥20, but not CIIS <20.

Conclusions: These findings suggest potential clinical relevance of CIIS and P pulmonale as risk indicators for adverse cardiopulmonary events in COPD.