Patient assignment and quality performance: a misaligned system.

Objectives: To assess the congruence between patient assignment and established patients as well as their association with Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) quality performance.

Study design: A retrospective cross-sectional analysis from January 2020 to February 2022.

Methods: The study setting is a fully integrated health care delivery system in Phoenix, Arizona. The study population includes Medicaid patients who received primary care services or were assigned to a primary care physician (PCP) at the study setting by 5 Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). We identified 4 possible relationships between the established patients (2 primary care visits) and the assigned patients (assigned by the MCO to the study setting): true-positive, false-positive, true-negative, and false-negative classifications. Precision and recall measures were used to assess congruence (or incongruence). Outcome measures were HEDIS quality metrics.

Results: A total of 100,030 Medicaid enrollees (adults and children) were established and/or assigned to the study setting from 5 separate payers. Only 15% were congruently established and assigned to the physician (true-positive). The overall precision was 21%, and the overall recall was 37%. The HEDIS quality performance was significantly higher (P < .05) for established patients for 5 of 6 metrics compared with patients who were not established.

Conclusions: The vast majority of assigned patients were not treated by the assigned PCP, yet better patient outcomes were seen with an established patient. As the health system rapidly adopts value-based payments, more rigorous methodologies are essential to identify physician-patient relationships.