欧洲 2022 年创纪录夏季人为变暖造成的死亡负担

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2

Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester

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引用次数: 0

摘要

2022 年夏季，欧洲气温创下历史新高，超过 60,000 人死于高温。通过将流行病学模型与检测和归因技术相结合，我们将这一死亡负担的一半（约 56% [95% CI 39-77%]）归因于人为变暖。同样，这也适用于所有性别、年龄以及前几年（2015-2021 年）与热相关的死亡率。我们的研究结果迫切要求提高适应和减缓气候变化的雄心。

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Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer

The record-breaking temperatures in Europe during the 2022 summer were associated with over 60,000 heat-related deaths. By combining epidemiological models with detection and attribution techniques, we attribute half of this mortality burden (~56% [95% CI 39–77%]) to anthropogenic warming. Likewise, this applies to all sexes, ages, and heat-related mortality burdens during previous years (2015–2021). Our results urgently call for increasing ambition in adaptation and mitigation.

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.