Anticipating climate risk in Norwegian municipalities

Climate change is increasingly being coupled to extreme weather and climate events, with an observed increase in intensity and occurrence of climate-related events. Norway is no exception. Though generally considered quite resilient to climate risk, with favorable conditions for adapting on a national level, studies point to regional and local differences. Applying a mixed methods approach we combine a literature review on climate adaptation in Norwegian municipalities showing patterns and trends, with a small-N case study allowing for an in-depth exploration of four Arctic municipalities, where warming occurs faster. We investigate how Norwegian municipalities observe, identify, and prepare for climate-related hazards, by applying the anticipation stage of resilience as an analytical approach. Findings demonstrate how municipal anticipatory capabilities largely rely on external expertise to gather information and/or reduce uncertainty. Experience and familiar hazards form the basis for preparing for future risk. This leaves municipalities running the risk of adapting to present risks while neglecting future developments in vulnerability and exposure to weather and climate events. Climate adaptation has been embedded in the existing processes for risk management, applying statutory risk- and vulnerability assessments as the primary tool for identifying climate risk. We find that this framing leaves a significant imprint on the municipal adaptation efforts. Based on our findings we recommend that municipalities look to strengthen in-house competency on climate adaptation and implement the use of distinct climate risk assessments to better capture long-term risk and identify local adaptation needs and measures.