A nomogram for cancer-specific survival of lung adenocarcinoma patients: A SEER based analysis

Background

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounts for 85 % of lung cancer cases. Among NSCLC subtypes, lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) stands as the most prevalent. Regrettably, LUAD continues to exhibit a notably unfavorable overall prognosis. This study's primary aim was to develop and validate prognostic tools capable of predicting the likelihood of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with LUAD.

Methods

We retrospectively collected 21,099 patients diagnosed with LUAD between 2010 and 2015, and 8290 patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2009 from SEER database. The cohort of 21,099 patients served as the prognostic group for the exploration of LUAD-related prognostic risk factors. The cohort of 8290 patients was designated for external validation. We created a training set and an internal validation set in the prognostic group for the development and internal validation of CSS nomograms. CSS predictors were identified through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression analysis. Prognostic model was constructed via Cox hazard regression analysis, presented in the form of both static and dynamic network-based nomograms.

Results

Several independent prognostic factors were incorporated into the construction of nomogram. The nomogram accurately predicted CSS at 1, 3, and 5 years, with respective AUC values of 0.769, 0.761, and 0.748 for the training group, and 0.741, 0.752, and 0.740 for the testing group. The study demonstrated a strong agreement between anticipated and actual CSS values, supported by decision curve analysis (DCA) and time-dependent calibrated curves. High-risk patients based on the nomogram exhibiting significantly lower survival rates compared to their low-risk counterparts according to Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves. The nomogram demonstrates excellent predictive power in the external validation cohort.

Conclusions

A dependable and user-friendly nomogram has been developed, available in both static and online dynamic calculator formats, to facilitate healthcare professionals in accurately estimating the likelihood of CSS for patients diagnosed LUAD.