基于堆叠-GPR-QPSO 耦合的集成学习的城市洪水承载体多属性诊断

IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-10-20 DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132222
Hong Lv , Zening Wu , Xiaokang Zheng , Dengming Yan , Zhilei Yu , Wenxiu Shang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

洪水承载体是受灾害直接影响和破坏的城市组成部分。目前依靠实时监测来识别和诊断洪水承载体属性的方法不足以进行灾前预报,而且缺乏全面性。为了减少单一数据源带来的不确定性,我们采用了双路径网络(DPN)方法来提取基于多源数据集的特征向量。通过量子粒子群优化(QPSO)增强型高斯过程回归优化,利用堆叠(Stacking)集成了五个基础学习器,形成了一个用于预测城市空间分类的集合学习器,从而构建了一个元分类器。利用 GIS 的邻近性分析功能,将功能区属性、兴趣点(POI)空间属性和洪水损失分配到每个洪水承载体网格。通过叠加城市洪水淹没图,实现了对洪水承载体的多属性诊断。选择中国郑州市金水区作为研究区域。结果表明:(1) 通过随机抽样点验证,郑州市其他四个区的城市功能区类别预测平均准确率为 78.5%。不同尺度预测精度的阈值效应显著。(2)模拟的洪水经济损失在重现期为 1 年、5 年、10 年、20 年、50 年和 100 年时呈现指数增长趋势。(3) 可以诊断每个洪水网格的多重洪水承载属性。最后,通过模拟和对比郑州 "7-20 "洪水事件的历史数据,对模型进行了有效验证。
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Multi-attribute diagnosis of urban flood-bearing bodies based on integrated learning with Stacking–GPR–QPSO coupling
Flood-bearing bodies are urban components directly impacted and damaged by disasters. Current methods for attribute identification and diagnosis of flood-bearing bodies, relying on real-time monitoring, are inadequate for pre-disaster forecasting and lack comprehensiveness. To reduce the uncertainty associated with single data sources, a Dual Path Network (DPN) method was employed to extract feature vectors based on multi-source datasets. A meta-classifier was constructed by integrating five base learners using Stacking, optimized by Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO)-enhanced Gaussian Process Regression, forming an ensemble learner for predicting urban spatial classification. Utilizing GIS proximity analysis functions, attributes of functional zones, spatial attributes of points of interest (POI), and flood loss were assigned to each flood-bearing body grid. By overlaying urban flood inundation maps, multi-attribute diagnosis of flood-bearing bodies was achieved. The Jinshui District of Zhengzhou, China, is selected as the study area. The results show: (1) Predictions of urban functional zone categories in four other districts of Zhengzhou showed an average accuracy rate of 78.5 % through random sampling point validation. The threshold effect of prediction accuracy at different scales was significant. (2) Simulated flood economic losses for recurrence intervals of 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years, and 100 years exhibited an exponential growth trend. (3) The multiple flood-bearing attributes of each flooded grid can be diagnosed. Finally, the model was effectively verified by simulating and comparing historical data from the “7·20” flood event in Zhengzhou.
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology
Journal of Hydrology 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
12.50%
发文量
1309
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology and hydrogeology. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, hydraulics, agrohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, civil and environmental engineering are included. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, environmental sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site.
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