通过改进的分布式水文模型精确模拟极端降雨-洪水事件

IF 5.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Journal of Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132190
Ji Li , Jiao Liu , Zhiqiang Xia , Chenrun Liu , Yuechen Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近来,全球极端降雨和洪水事件频发,严重损害了地区经济和社会。因此,迫切需要洪水模拟和预报,为区域防洪减灾提供关键技术支撑。本研究改进了全分布式物理水文模型柳溪河模型,以模拟北江流域的极端降雨洪水事件。该流域是中国广西省著名的暴雨中心。本研究从两个方面对柳溪河模型进行了改进:一是改进了模型结构和径流生成及汇流算法,二是优化了参数校核方法。这两项调整改善了模型的洪水模拟性能,降低了模拟结果的不确定性。结果表明,改进后的流溪河模型模拟的洪水与实测值具有很强的一致性,纳什系数、相关系数、过程相对误差、洪峰流量误差等指标值在方案评价中表现很好;特别是模型改进后,平均过程相对误差、洪峰误差、洪峰时差分别下降了62%、63%和80%。模拟的各项误差指标均在《水文情报与水文预报标准》(GB/T-22482-2008)的允许误差范围内,满足当地水文部门对洪水预报精度的要求,可作为洪水预报的实用业务方案。这些令人满意的洪水模拟结果表明,模型和算法都得到了改进,因此,改进后的流溪河模型可为区域洪水预报和洪水减灾提供重要的理论指导。
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Accurate simulation of extreme rainfall–flood events via an improved distributed hydrological model
Recently, the high incidence of extreme rainfall and flood events worldwide has severely harmed regional economies and societies. Therefore, flood simulations and forecasts, which can provide key technical support for regional flood control and disaster reduction, are urgently needed. The Liuxihe model, as a fully distributed, physically based hydrological model, was improved in this study to simulate extreme rainfall flood events in the Beijiang River Basin. This basin is a famous rainstorm centre in Guangxi Province, China. In this work, the Liuxihe model is improved in two aspects: first, its structure and runoff generation and confluence algorithm are improved, and second, the parameter calibration method is optimised. These two adjustments improve the flood simulation performance of the model and reduce the uncertainty of the simulation results. The results revealed that the flood simulated by the improved Liuxihe model was strongly consistent with the measured values, and the index values of the Nash coefficient, correlation coefficient, process relative error, and flood peak flow error performed very well in the scheme evaluation; in particular, the mean process relative error, flood peak error, and peak time difference decreased by 62%, 63%, and 80%, respectively, after model improvement. The error indicators of the simulation were within the allowable error range from the Standard for Hydrological Information and Hydrological Forecasting (GB/T-22482–2008), which meets the accuracy requirements of flood forecasting in the local hydrological department and can be used as a practical operational plan for flood forecasting. These satisfactory flood simulation results showed that the model and algorithm were improved; thus, the improved Liuxihe model can provide important theoretical guidance for regional flood forecasting and flood disaster mitigation.
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology
Journal of Hydrology 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
12.50%
发文量
1309
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology and hydrogeology. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, hydraulics, agrohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, civil and environmental engineering are included. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, environmental sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site.
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