Roel Bouman , Linda Schmeitz , Luco Buise , Jacco Heres , Yuliya Shapovalova , Tom Heskes
{"title":"结合电网时间序列测量中的异常点和变化点检测,获取更好的负荷估计值","authors":"Roel Bouman , Linda Schmeitz , Luco Buise , Jacco Heres , Yuliya Shapovalova , Tom Heskes","doi":"10.1016/j.segan.2024.101540","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we present novel methodology for automatic anomaly and switch event filtering to improve load estimation in power grid systems. By leveraging unsupervised methods with supervised optimization, our approach prioritizes interpretability while ensuring robust and generalizable performance on unseen data. Through experimentation, a combination of binary segmentation for change point detection and statistical process control for anomaly detection emerges as the most effective strategy, specifically when ensembled in a novel sequential manner. Results indicate the clear wasted potential when filtering is not applied. The automatic load estimation is also fairly accurate, with approximately 90% of estimates falling within a 10% error margin, with only a single significant failure in both the minimum and maximum load estimates across 60 measurements in the test set. Our methodology’s interpretability makes it particularly suitable for critical infrastructure planning, thereby enhancing decision-making processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56142,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Energy Grids & Networks","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 101540"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Acquiring better load estimates by combining anomaly and change point detection in power grid time-series measurements\",\"authors\":\"Roel Bouman , Linda Schmeitz , Luco Buise , Jacco Heres , Yuliya Shapovalova , Tom Heskes\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.segan.2024.101540\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In this paper we present novel methodology for automatic anomaly and switch event filtering to improve load estimation in power grid systems. By leveraging unsupervised methods with supervised optimization, our approach prioritizes interpretability while ensuring robust and generalizable performance on unseen data. Through experimentation, a combination of binary segmentation for change point detection and statistical process control for anomaly detection emerges as the most effective strategy, specifically when ensembled in a novel sequential manner. Results indicate the clear wasted potential when filtering is not applied. The automatic load estimation is also fairly accurate, with approximately 90% of estimates falling within a 10% error margin, with only a single significant failure in both the minimum and maximum load estimates across 60 measurements in the test set. Our methodology’s interpretability makes it particularly suitable for critical infrastructure planning, thereby enhancing decision-making processes.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":56142,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Sustainable Energy Grids & Networks\",\"volume\":\"40 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101540\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Sustainable Energy Grids & Networks\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352467724002698\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sustainable Energy Grids & Networks","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352467724002698","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Acquiring better load estimates by combining anomaly and change point detection in power grid time-series measurements
In this paper we present novel methodology for automatic anomaly and switch event filtering to improve load estimation in power grid systems. By leveraging unsupervised methods with supervised optimization, our approach prioritizes interpretability while ensuring robust and generalizable performance on unseen data. Through experimentation, a combination of binary segmentation for change point detection and statistical process control for anomaly detection emerges as the most effective strategy, specifically when ensembled in a novel sequential manner. Results indicate the clear wasted potential when filtering is not applied. The automatic load estimation is also fairly accurate, with approximately 90% of estimates falling within a 10% error margin, with only a single significant failure in both the minimum and maximum load estimates across 60 measurements in the test set. Our methodology’s interpretability makes it particularly suitable for critical infrastructure planning, thereby enhancing decision-making processes.
期刊介绍:
Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks (SEGAN)is an international peer-reviewed publication for theoretical and applied research dealing with energy, information grids and power networks, including smart grids from super to micro grid scales. SEGAN welcomes papers describing fundamental advances in mathematical, statistical or computational methods with application to power and energy systems, as well as papers on applications, computation and modeling in the areas of electrical and energy systems with coupled information and communication technologies.