Operational reliability and non-deterministic resilience estimation of active distribution network incorporating effect of real-time dynamic hosting capacity

Active distribution networks are increasingly recognized essential for achieving sustainable development goals. Traditionally, hosting capacity was considered as a static measure for planning distributed energy resources integration. This work introduces the concept of dynamic hosting capacity, which recurrently re-evaluates hosting capacity in response to erratic modern grid conditions. The introduction of dynamic hosting capacity facilitated testing variations of power injection from minimum to 100 %, sustaining power system governing parameter limits. This embarked the need of operational reliability assessment and enhancing situational awareness for optimum power injection and balance. To achieve operational reliability analysis based on dynamic hosting capacity, hybrid probability distribution function-based Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. This resulted in 85–90 %. improvisation of solar photovoltaic generation and load alignment, as this methodology provides comprehensive and accurate assessment of system performance under diverse uncertainties. The framework's validation includes projection of time-varying operational reliability indices, over time independent reliability indices i.e., dynamic loss of load probability, dynamic loss of load expectation, dynamic loss of load duration, dynamic loss of load frequency, dynamic grid margin, and dynamic grid dependency. This resulted in 30 % improvement in assessment of grid margin, facilitating reliable uncertainty handling competence. Additionally, expectation maximization algorithm is proposed to evaluate non-deterministic resilience due to ambiguities associated with solar photovoltaic distributed energy resources. The non-deterministic resilience assessment testified 80 % bounce-back rate, demonstrating better adaptability and robustness. The entire analysis is conducted in MATLAB, validated using Typhoon Hardware-in-Loop real-time platform, and compared with existing literatures to demonstrate its effectiveness.