解读显性和隐性特征,为在线视频游戏提供可靠、可解释和可操作的用户流失预测。

Xiyuan Wang, Laixin Xie, He Wang, Xingxing Xing, Wei Wan, Ziming Wu, Xiaojuan Ma, Quan Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

蓬勃发展的在线视频游戏行业引发了供应商之间的激烈竞争,他们既要扩大用户群,又要留住现有玩家,尤其是社交互动类型的游戏。为了预测玩家流失率,人们越来越依赖于关注社交互动动态的机器学习(ML)模型。然而,大多数 ML 算法普遍不透明,这严重阻碍了该领域专家对它们的接受,他们通常将这些算法视为 "黑盒子"。尽管可解释人工智能(XAI)技术能够阐明模型决策,但其在游戏行业的应用仍然有限。这主要是因为非技术领域专家(如产品经理和游戏设计师)在解读蕴含在计算模型中的 "显性 "和 "隐性 "特征时遇到了巨大挑战。本研究通过将模型输入重组为显性和隐性特征,为预测玩家流失率提出了一种可靠、可解释和可操作的解决方案。它探讨了在显性特征和隐性特征之间建立联系如何有助于专家理解潜在的隐性特征。此外,它还强调了 XAI 技术的必要性,这些技术不仅能提供可实施的干预措施,还能为这些干预措施指出最关键的特征。包括专家反馈和主体内用户研究在内的两个案例研究证明了我们方法的有效性。
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Deciphering Explicit and Implicit Features for Reliable, Interpretable, and Actionable User Churn Prediction in Online Video Games.

The burgeoning online video game industry has sparked intense competition among providers to both expand their user base and retain existing players, particularly within social interaction genres. To anticipate player churn, there is an increasing reliance on machine learning (ML) models that focus on social interaction dynamics. However, the prevalent opacity of most ML algorithms poses a significant hurdle to their acceptance among domain experts, who often view them as "black boxes". Despite the availability of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques capable of elucidating model decisions, their adoption in the gaming industry remains limited. This is primarily because non-technical domain experts, such as product managers and game designers, encounter substantial challenges in deciphering the "explicit" and "implicit" features embedded within computational models. This study proposes a reliable, interpretable, and actionable solution for predicting player churn by restructuring model inputs into explicit and implicit features. It explores how establishing a connection between explicit and implicit features can assist experts in understanding the underlying implicit features. Moreover, it emphasizes the necessity for XAI techniques that not only offer implementable interventions but also pinpoint the most crucial features for those interventions. Two case studies, including expert feedback and a within-subject user study, demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.

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