How public transport users would react to different pandemic alert scenarios in the post-vaccine era? An analysis of preferences and attitudes of the users in the metropolitan area of Naples (Italy)

The dramatic experience due to COVID-19 spread has reshaped travel preferences of public transport (PT) users worldwide, especially in urban areas. As the PT is expected to recover its major role in such areas, it is important to understand the factors influencing PT users’ willingness to pay (WTP) for onboard safety measures, in the event of future pandemic scenarios. Furthermore, both individual latent traits (e.g. concern for the pandemic, trust/distrust in city services and national government actions) and perceived entity of the pandemic are expected to influence preferences for PT users under such a post-pandemic scenario. This paper analyses the preferences and attitudes of PT users in the Naples metropolitan area (Italy) through a hybrid choice model (HCM). First, WTPs for onboard service features are assessed in three hypothetical pandemic alert scenarios, which are explicitly introduced in the model as context variables. Second, the model allows for assessing the relative importance of onboard characteristics as the pandemic scenario evolves. Third, the model incorporates psycho-attitudinal variables and shows how they impact WTPs. Finally, several policy implications for policymakers and transport companies operating in the study area are derived. In particular: (a) WTPs for increased/reduced occupancy rate and green pass check at the entrance significantly depend upon the latent traits investigated; (b) relative importance of safety measures varies significantly between the pandemic alert scenarios; (c) possible ticketing strategies for PT users have been investigated based on the HCM findings, searching for the configuration of safety measures to ensure that users accept a 100% allowed capacity on board during moderate/high pandemic scenarios without varying the price, as well as the price variations needed to stay in an indifference range of the utility in restricted conditions of the service; (d) the acceptability of safety measures has been assessed through a simulation exercise, finding that non-vaccinated travellers are 2.6 and 2.1 times more willing to accept a full capacity of the buses/trains on board than vaccinated people if subscribers or not, respectively.