Signal-devices management and data-driven evidential constraints based robust dispatch strategy of virtual power plant

Ensuring the safety and reliability of energy systems is very important in power grid operation. However, inherent intricacies and uncertainties of modern-day power systems, such as the mismatch between signal frequency and equipment response speed and the stochasticity associated with renewable energy and load forecasts, create significant challenges for generation dispatch planning. This study proposes a robust optimization approach with constraints based on signal-devices management and data-driven evidential distribution constraints. The first stage of this approach is to decompose and recombine the net power demand according to the Hilbert-Huang transform and device capability. The signal-device management constraints are then established based on this. The second stage formulates an evidential constraint based on data-driven evidential distribution and chance constraints in a distributionally robust optimization framework that caters to the stochasticity associated with renewable energy and load forecasts. The proposed model is validated on a virtual power plant to assess the approach’s efficacy for different dispatching scenarios. Penalty-based sensitivity analysis provides further insights into the proposed method’s performance for varying levels of ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions. Simulation results demonstrate that system flexibility becomes increasingly crucial for maintaining system stability and security as the penetration of renewable energy grows. Compared with chance constraint, the proposed data-driven evidential constraint effectively enables the optimization framework to handle stochasticity after sacrificing 0.62% more economic loss and 0.7% more environmental loss. Excessively high penalty parameters for ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ do not promote economic development, resulting in 21.08% and 52.51% more economic and environmental losses without obvious environmental protection.