社会空间分布结构影响下的城市天然气管道运行脆弱性:中国昆明安全风险模式案例研究

IF 9.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110593
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引用次数: 0

摘要

频繁发生的城市天然气管道事故对周边地区的人员和财产安全构成了严重威胁。然而,目前对天然气管道风险的研究主要集中在对管道本身的评估上,还没有成熟的方法来评估管道灾害对周边地区的影响。本文提出了一种城市天然气管道风险评估方法,该方法将管道的物理属性与基于城市社会空间分布的社会脆弱性分析相结合。利用城市兴趣点(POI)数据,构建了潜在天然气管道事故的社会空间分布模型。根据物理脆弱性评估管道故障风险,而通过社会脆弱性评估故障后果。这种方法结合了物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性分析,实现了全面的城市天然气管道风险评估。结果发现,在研究区域的 6148 条管道中,有 68 条属于 "双高 "管道,其特点是物理脆弱性高(相对高风险管道),社会脆弱性高(涉及 IV 级区域)。研究区域内确定的高风险社区为翠湖西路社区和大观商业城社区,突出了风险分布的特点。研究结果表明,本研究有助于提高城市应对天然气管道事故的能力,减少潜在的经济损失和公共影响,提高城市公共安全。同时也为天然气管道风险评估和城市公共安全研究提供了新的思路。
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Urban natural gas pipeline operational vulnerability under the influence of a social spatial distribution structure: A case study of the safety risk patterns in Kunming, China
Frequent urban natural gas pipeline accidents pose a serious threat to the safety of people and property in surrounding areas. However, current research on natural gas pipeline risks primarily focuses on evaluating the pipelines themselves, with no established method for assessing the impact of pipeline disasters on surrounding areas. This paper proposes an urban natural gas pipeline risk assessment method that integrates the physical attributes of the pipelines with an analysis of social vulnerability based on urban social spatial distribution. Using urban Point of Interest (POI) data, a social spatial distribution model for potential natural gas pipeline accidents is constructed. The risk of pipeline failure is assessed based on physical vulnerability, while the consequences of failure are evaluated through social vulnerability. This method combines the analysis of physical and social vulnerabilities to achieve a comprehensive urban natural gas pipeline risk assessment. The results identified 68 out of 6148 pipelines in the study area as "double high" pipelines, characterized by high physical vulnerability (relatively high risk pipelines) and high social vulnerability (involving level IV areas). The high risk communities identified in the study area are the Cuihu West Road Community and the Daguan Commercial City Community, highlighting the characteristics of risk distribution. The findings suggest that this study contributes to improving urban resilience to natural gas pipeline incidents, reducing potential economic losses and public impacts, and enhancing urban public safety. It also provides new insights into natural gas pipeline risk assessment and urban public safety research.
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来源期刊
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程:工业
CiteScore
15.20
自引率
39.50%
发文量
621
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.
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