{"title":"拜登之后的美国外交政策:印度洋-太平洋地区可期待什么?","authors":"See Seng Tan","doi":"10.1111/aspp.12763","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>What might the foreign policy of a potential Trump presidency or that of a Harris presidency look like, and what could their respective implications for the Indo-Pacific be? The likelihood that Trump will revive his “America First” doctrine, including his trade war with China, suggests that the region may be in for another bumpy ride from a “Trump 2.0.” A Harris presidency will likely continue Biden's policy in engaging deeply (but selectively) with the Indo-Pacific, while “de-risking” America from China and resisting Chinese efforts to delimit the global commons and deny others access to it. Whether led by Trump or Harris, it is likely that the United States will proactively take on China but in slightly different ways. In either instance, Southeast Asia stands to benefit if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries play their cards right, but it will be in terms of their perceived usefulness to America's effort to counter China.</p>","PeriodicalId":44747,"journal":{"name":"Asian Politics & Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"America's foreign policy after Biden: What can the Indo-Pacific region expect?\",\"authors\":\"See Seng Tan\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/aspp.12763\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>What might the foreign policy of a potential Trump presidency or that of a Harris presidency look like, and what could their respective implications for the Indo-Pacific be? The likelihood that Trump will revive his “America First” doctrine, including his trade war with China, suggests that the region may be in for another bumpy ride from a “Trump 2.0.” A Harris presidency will likely continue Biden's policy in engaging deeply (but selectively) with the Indo-Pacific, while “de-risking” America from China and resisting Chinese efforts to delimit the global commons and deny others access to it. Whether led by Trump or Harris, it is likely that the United States will proactively take on China but in slightly different ways. In either instance, Southeast Asia stands to benefit if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries play their cards right, but it will be in terms of their perceived usefulness to America's effort to counter China.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":44747,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Asian Politics & Policy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Asian Politics & Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aspp.12763\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"POLITICAL SCIENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asian Politics & Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aspp.12763","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
潜在的特朗普总统或哈里斯总统的外交政策会是怎样的?特朗普有可能重提其 "美国优先 "理论,包括与中国的贸易战,这表明该地区可能会再次经历 "特朗普 2.0 "的颠簸。哈里斯担任总统后,可能会延续拜登的政策,与印度洋-太平洋地区进行深入接触(但有选择性),同时 "消除 "美国对中国的风险,抵制中国划定全球公域并拒绝其他国家进入的努力。无论是由特朗普还是哈里斯领导,美国都有可能以略有不同的方式主动与中国对抗。在这两种情况下,如果东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations)国家正确出牌,东南亚都将受益,但受益的程度将取决于它们对美国对抗中国的努力是否有用。
America's foreign policy after Biden: What can the Indo-Pacific region expect?
What might the foreign policy of a potential Trump presidency or that of a Harris presidency look like, and what could their respective implications for the Indo-Pacific be? The likelihood that Trump will revive his “America First” doctrine, including his trade war with China, suggests that the region may be in for another bumpy ride from a “Trump 2.0.” A Harris presidency will likely continue Biden's policy in engaging deeply (but selectively) with the Indo-Pacific, while “de-risking” America from China and resisting Chinese efforts to delimit the global commons and deny others access to it. Whether led by Trump or Harris, it is likely that the United States will proactively take on China but in slightly different ways. In either instance, Southeast Asia stands to benefit if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries play their cards right, but it will be in terms of their perceived usefulness to America's effort to counter China.