László Zsolt Garamszegi, Zoltán Soltész, Tamara Szentiványi, Kornélia Kurucz, Gergely Nagy, Ákos Bede-Fazekas
{"title":"确定介导三种入侵蚊子传播的生态因素:公民科学预测","authors":"László Zsolt Garamszegi, Zoltán Soltész, Tamara Szentiványi, Kornélia Kurucz, Gergely Nagy, Ákos Bede-Fazekas","doi":"10.1007/s10340-024-01841-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Due to their potential role in pathogen transmission, invasive mosquitoes pose considerable threats to human and animal health. Several studies have identified the most important ecological drivers mediating the establishment and spread of key mosquito species (e.g., <i>Aedes aegypti</i>, and <i>Ae. albopictus</i>), and made predictions for future distribution. We evaluated the effect of an exhaustive list of environmental predictors on the distribution of three invasive species in Hungary (<i>Ae. albopictus</i>, <i>Ae. japonicus,</i> and <i>Ae. koreicus)</i> by using the same standards for data collection based on citizen science observations. Current distribution maps of these species were generated from a 5-year survey, then were compared with various predictor maps reflecting climate, habitat type, food supply, traffic, and interspecific competition by using a boosted regression trees approach that resulted in a subset of variables with the strongest impact. The best predictor sets were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the focal species for the whole country, and these predictions based on citizen science were evaluated against the results of an independent recent field surveillance. We uncovered species-specific patterns and found that different predictor sets were selected for the three different species, and only predictions for <i>Ae. albopictus</i> could be validated with direct trapping data. Therefore, citizen science informed distribution maps can be used to identify ecological predictors that determine the spread of invasive mosquitoes, and to estimate risk based on the predicted distribution in the case of <i>Ae. albopictus</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":16736,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pest Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Identifying ecological factors mediating the spread of three invasive mosquito species: citizen science informed prediction\",\"authors\":\"László Zsolt Garamszegi, Zoltán Soltész, Tamara Szentiványi, Kornélia Kurucz, Gergely Nagy, Ákos Bede-Fazekas\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10340-024-01841-7\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Due to their potential role in pathogen transmission, invasive mosquitoes pose considerable threats to human and animal health. Several studies have identified the most important ecological drivers mediating the establishment and spread of key mosquito species (e.g., <i>Aedes aegypti</i>, and <i>Ae. albopictus</i>), and made predictions for future distribution. We evaluated the effect of an exhaustive list of environmental predictors on the distribution of three invasive species in Hungary (<i>Ae. albopictus</i>, <i>Ae. japonicus,</i> and <i>Ae. koreicus)</i> by using the same standards for data collection based on citizen science observations. Current distribution maps of these species were generated from a 5-year survey, then were compared with various predictor maps reflecting climate, habitat type, food supply, traffic, and interspecific competition by using a boosted regression trees approach that resulted in a subset of variables with the strongest impact. The best predictor sets were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the focal species for the whole country, and these predictions based on citizen science were evaluated against the results of an independent recent field surveillance. We uncovered species-specific patterns and found that different predictor sets were selected for the three different species, and only predictions for <i>Ae. albopictus</i> could be validated with direct trapping data. Therefore, citizen science informed distribution maps can be used to identify ecological predictors that determine the spread of invasive mosquitoes, and to estimate risk based on the predicted distribution in the case of <i>Ae. albopictus</i>.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16736,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Pest Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Pest Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10340-024-01841-7\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENTOMOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Pest Science","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10340-024-01841-7","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENTOMOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Identifying ecological factors mediating the spread of three invasive mosquito species: citizen science informed prediction
Due to their potential role in pathogen transmission, invasive mosquitoes pose considerable threats to human and animal health. Several studies have identified the most important ecological drivers mediating the establishment and spread of key mosquito species (e.g., Aedes aegypti, and Ae. albopictus), and made predictions for future distribution. We evaluated the effect of an exhaustive list of environmental predictors on the distribution of three invasive species in Hungary (Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus, and Ae. koreicus) by using the same standards for data collection based on citizen science observations. Current distribution maps of these species were generated from a 5-year survey, then were compared with various predictor maps reflecting climate, habitat type, food supply, traffic, and interspecific competition by using a boosted regression trees approach that resulted in a subset of variables with the strongest impact. The best predictor sets were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the focal species for the whole country, and these predictions based on citizen science were evaluated against the results of an independent recent field surveillance. We uncovered species-specific patterns and found that different predictor sets were selected for the three different species, and only predictions for Ae. albopictus could be validated with direct trapping data. Therefore, citizen science informed distribution maps can be used to identify ecological predictors that determine the spread of invasive mosquitoes, and to estimate risk based on the predicted distribution in the case of Ae. albopictus.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Pest Science publishes high-quality papers on all aspects of pest science in agriculture, horticulture (including viticulture), forestry, urban pests, and stored products research, including health and safety issues.
Journal of Pest Science reports on advances in control of pests and animal vectors of diseases, the biology, ethology and ecology of pests and their antagonists, and the use of other beneficial organisms in pest control. The journal covers all noxious or damaging groups of animals, including arthropods, nematodes, molluscs, and vertebrates.
Journal of Pest Science devotes special attention to emerging and innovative pest control strategies, including the side effects of such approaches on non-target organisms, for example natural enemies and pollinators, and the implementation of these strategies in integrated pest management.
Journal of Pest Science also publishes papers on the management of agro- and forest ecosystems where this is relevant to pest control. Papers on important methodological developments relevant for pest control will be considered as well.