{"title":"利用哨兵-2 和机器学习进行早稻产量预测的升尺度和降尺度方法,促进精准氮肥施用","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.compag.2024.109603","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Early season yield prediction could support rice farmers in adopting precision agriculture for nitrogen fertilisation management. Remote sensing and machine learning (ML) can be used to predict and map crop yield during phenological stages relevant to nitrogen application, like tillering in rice, at both within-field and field scales. This study evaluated the transferability of ML models in early season yield prediction through upscaling and downscaling approaches. The effects of two prediction times (tillering and ripening stages) and training/testing set sizes on ML models performance were evaluated over five rice growing seasons (from 2018 to 2022) in northern Italy, using whole-field-average yields and yield maps. Vegetation indices from Sentinel-2 imagery using the Google Earth Engine platform fed five ML algorithms (Cubist-CUB, Gaussian Process Regression-GPR, Neural Network-NNET, Random Forest-RF, and Support Vector Machines-SVM). ML algorithms were trained with yield maps and tested with whole-field-average yields to obtain a downscaling approach, while the opposite was done to obtain an upscaling approach. The downscaling approach showed higher accuracy than upscaling approach. Ripening stage predictions were more accurate than tillering stages, although the downscaling approach showed small differences between tillering and ripening stages. The highest tillering stage accuracy was achieved by SVM for both downscaling and upscaling approaches with 20 % and 27.8 % of Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and 0.99 and 0.99 of Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) score, respectively. Set size and data distribution effected ML models accuracy, with the highest performance achieved by RF and GPR with 0.80 and 1.00 of SAW score for the downscaling and upscaling approaches, respectively. This study demonstrated how ML models and downscaling approach could support rice farmers to calculate the nitrogen dose using the predicted yield at the tillering stage, enabling them to apply a site-specific nitrogen fertilisation based on the within-field yield prediction variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50627,"journal":{"name":"Computers and Electronics in Agriculture","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Upscaling and downscaling approaches for early season rice yield prediction using Sentinel-2 and machine learning for precision nitrogen fertilisation\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.compag.2024.109603\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Early season yield prediction could support rice farmers in adopting precision agriculture for nitrogen fertilisation management. Remote sensing and machine learning (ML) can be used to predict and map crop yield during phenological stages relevant to nitrogen application, like tillering in rice, at both within-field and field scales. This study evaluated the transferability of ML models in early season yield prediction through upscaling and downscaling approaches. The effects of two prediction times (tillering and ripening stages) and training/testing set sizes on ML models performance were evaluated over five rice growing seasons (from 2018 to 2022) in northern Italy, using whole-field-average yields and yield maps. Vegetation indices from Sentinel-2 imagery using the Google Earth Engine platform fed five ML algorithms (Cubist-CUB, Gaussian Process Regression-GPR, Neural Network-NNET, Random Forest-RF, and Support Vector Machines-SVM). ML algorithms were trained with yield maps and tested with whole-field-average yields to obtain a downscaling approach, while the opposite was done to obtain an upscaling approach. The downscaling approach showed higher accuracy than upscaling approach. Ripening stage predictions were more accurate than tillering stages, although the downscaling approach showed small differences between tillering and ripening stages. The highest tillering stage accuracy was achieved by SVM for both downscaling and upscaling approaches with 20 % and 27.8 % of Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and 0.99 and 0.99 of Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) score, respectively. Set size and data distribution effected ML models accuracy, with the highest performance achieved by RF and GPR with 0.80 and 1.00 of SAW score for the downscaling and upscaling approaches, respectively. This study demonstrated how ML models and downscaling approach could support rice farmers to calculate the nitrogen dose using the predicted yield at the tillering stage, enabling them to apply a site-specific nitrogen fertilisation based on the within-field yield prediction variability.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50627,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Computers and Electronics in Agriculture\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Computers and Electronics in Agriculture\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168169924009943\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Computers and Electronics in Agriculture","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168169924009943","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
早季产量预测可帮助稻农采用精准农业进行氮肥管理。遥感和机器学习(ML)可用于预测和绘制与氮肥施用相关的物候期(如水稻分蘖期)的作物产量,既可用于田间,也可用于田间尺度。本研究通过升尺度和降尺度方法评估了 ML 模型在早季产量预测中的可转移性。利用全田平均产量和产量图,评估了意大利北部五个水稻生长季(2018 年至 2022 年)中两个预测时间(分蘖期和成熟期)和训练/测试集大小对 ML 模型性能的影响。使用谷歌地球引擎平台从哨兵-2 图像中获取的植被指数为五种 ML 算法(立方体-CUB、高斯过程回归-GPR、神经网络-NNET、随机森林-RF 和支持向量机-SVM)提供了支持。用产量图训练 ML 算法,并用全场平均产量进行测试,以获得降尺度方法,反之则获得升尺度方法。降尺度方法比升尺度方法显示出更高的准确性。尽管降尺度方法在分蘖期和成熟期之间显示出的差异很小,但成熟期预测比分蘖期预测更准确。在降尺度和升尺度方法中,SVM 的分蘖期预测准确率最高,归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)分别为 20 % 和 27.8 %,简单加权(SAW)得分分别为 0.99 和 0.99。集合大小和数据分布影响了 ML 模型的准确性,其中 RF 和 GPR 的性能最高,降尺度和升尺度方法的 SAW 分数分别为 0.80 和 1.00。这项研究表明,ML 模型和降尺度方法可帮助稻农利用分蘖期的预测产量计算氮肥剂量,使他们能够根据田间产量预测的变异性进行因地制宜的氮肥施用。
Upscaling and downscaling approaches for early season rice yield prediction using Sentinel-2 and machine learning for precision nitrogen fertilisation
Early season yield prediction could support rice farmers in adopting precision agriculture for nitrogen fertilisation management. Remote sensing and machine learning (ML) can be used to predict and map crop yield during phenological stages relevant to nitrogen application, like tillering in rice, at both within-field and field scales. This study evaluated the transferability of ML models in early season yield prediction through upscaling and downscaling approaches. The effects of two prediction times (tillering and ripening stages) and training/testing set sizes on ML models performance were evaluated over five rice growing seasons (from 2018 to 2022) in northern Italy, using whole-field-average yields and yield maps. Vegetation indices from Sentinel-2 imagery using the Google Earth Engine platform fed five ML algorithms (Cubist-CUB, Gaussian Process Regression-GPR, Neural Network-NNET, Random Forest-RF, and Support Vector Machines-SVM). ML algorithms were trained with yield maps and tested with whole-field-average yields to obtain a downscaling approach, while the opposite was done to obtain an upscaling approach. The downscaling approach showed higher accuracy than upscaling approach. Ripening stage predictions were more accurate than tillering stages, although the downscaling approach showed small differences between tillering and ripening stages. The highest tillering stage accuracy was achieved by SVM for both downscaling and upscaling approaches with 20 % and 27.8 % of Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and 0.99 and 0.99 of Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) score, respectively. Set size and data distribution effected ML models accuracy, with the highest performance achieved by RF and GPR with 0.80 and 1.00 of SAW score for the downscaling and upscaling approaches, respectively. This study demonstrated how ML models and downscaling approach could support rice farmers to calculate the nitrogen dose using the predicted yield at the tillering stage, enabling them to apply a site-specific nitrogen fertilisation based on the within-field yield prediction variability.
期刊介绍:
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture provides international coverage of advancements in computer hardware, software, electronic instrumentation, and control systems applied to agricultural challenges. Encompassing agronomy, horticulture, forestry, aquaculture, and animal farming, the journal publishes original papers, reviews, and applications notes. It explores the use of computers and electronics in plant or animal agricultural production, covering topics like agricultural soils, water, pests, controlled environments, and waste. The scope extends to on-farm post-harvest operations and relevant technologies, including artificial intelligence, sensors, machine vision, robotics, networking, and simulation modeling. Its companion journal, Smart Agricultural Technology, continues the focus on smart applications in production agriculture.