Dynamic conservation strategies for protected areas of Fujian Province: From integrated perspective of the adaptability of habitat and carbon storage to climate

Traditional protected areas (PAs) with fixed boundaries are insufficient in the face of global climate change, undermining biodiversity conservation and climate impact mitigation. Fujian Province, a biodiversity hotspot in China, requires dynamic conservation strategies to maintain habitat quality (HQ) and carbon storage (CS). This research introduces a novel framework that integrates land-use simulation and ecosystem service valuation models to address conservation challenges under varying climate scenarios. We employ the System Dynamics (SD), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to explore how future climate scenarios might alter land use, HQ, and CS, and determines the conservation priorities for Fujian Province by 2050 based on HQ, CS capacity, and a future vision for protection. Findings indicate: (1) Under SSP1-2.6, Fujian Province exhibits an increased demand for forests, grasslands, and water resources, while SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 predict an elevated demand for urban land, extending into inland areas. (2) In SSP1-2.6, HQ and CS are expected to improve, with average HQ projected to rise to 0.71 and CS to 15.63 Mg/ha by 2050. Conversely, under SSP5-8.5, HQ is anticipated to decline to 0.66, and CS to 15.14 Mg/ha. SSP2-4.5 shows moderate levels, with slight decreases in HQ to 0.69 and CS to 15.34 Mg/ha due to moderate urban expansion. Nature reserves demonstrate the highest potential, while national parks remain stable and ocean parks perform poorly. (3) Hotspots are primarily located in the western Wuyishan and central Daiyun mountain ranges. Conservation targets are recommended at 15 %, 30 %, and 43 % of Fujian Province’s area for 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. This research provides a framework for enhancing protected areas, empowering governments to advance biodiversity conservation and achieve carbon neutrality.