Influence of mini warm pool extent on phytoplankton productivity and export in the Arabian sea

The Arabian Sea is a highly productive tropical ecosystem of the Indian Ocean that supports high fluxes of particulate organic carbon to the mesopelagic zone from two distinct periods of elevated biological productivity associated with the semiannual reversals of the monsoonal wind system. There are now strong indications that the Arabian Sea's monsoonal wind patterns and hydrographic conditions are being impacted by long-term temperature increases, but the consequences of these changes on primary production and carbon export to the mesopelagic zone are unknown. This is especially true for the summer monsoon period when cloud cover obscures much of the Arabian Sea basin and therefore precludes remotely sensed ocean color measurements for estimating phytoplankton biomass and productivity. Here we overcome this limitation by using a database of bio-optical profiles from Biogeochemical Argo floats collected over the last decade to evaluate the impact of interannual temperature increases on Arabian Sea primary production and carbon export. We classify individual years of float observations based on the spatial extent of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool that appears in the southeast Arabian Sea before the onset of the summer monsoon. This Mini Warm Pool, which begins to build in winter and collapses with the onset of the summer monsoon in late spring, has gained considerable interest on account of its influence on the timing of the onset of the summer monsoon. We observed a 35 percent decrease in primary production during the summer monsoon phytoplankton bloom in strong warm pool years, and a 13 percent decrease in particle stocks in the upper mesopelagic zone following the peak of the bloom. Decreases in production and export were additionally accompanied by a decrease in average particle size, indicating a shift from larger cells like diatoms that appear from fertilization of the oligotrophic waters to smaller phytoplankton size classes in response to a deepening of the thermocline and increased stratification of the water column. These results suggest changes in phytoplankton community structure and further decreases in primary production and carbon export in the Arabian Sea in response to future warming.