Multimodel-based quantitative source apportionment and risk assessment of soil heavy metals: A reliable method to achieve regional pollution traceability and management.

To strengthen the control of pollution sources and promote soil pollution management of agricultural land, this study constructed a comprehensive source apportionment framework, which significantly improved the reliability of potential source analysis compared with the traditional single model. The spatial distribution pattern of agricultural soil heavy metals (SHMs) content in Lintong, a typical river valley city in China, was determined and the degree of contamination was evaluated. A scientific source apportionment methodological framework was constructed through correlation analysis methods together with multiple source apportionment receptor models. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to derive the results of the human health risk assessment (HHRA). The results revealed the following: (1) Agricultural soils were moderately and mildly polluted, accounting for 28.8 % and 71.2 % of the total number of sampling points, respectively. (2) The overall correlation of heavy metals (HMs) was strong according to the coupling analysis of the SHMs, in which a strong correlation (0.8-1) was reached among Cu, Ni, Pb, Cr and Zn, indicating that these HMs were most likely homologous or composite. (3) Multimodel analysis of the SHMs sources revealed that the first and second principal components were agricultural (41.36 %) and industrial (19.69 %) sources, respectively, and the remaining principal components were road traffic, natural factors, and atmospheric deposition or surface runoff, respectively. (4) The average comprehensive noncarcinogenic health risk indices for adults and children were 4.2259E-02 and 1.4194E-01, respectively, which were within the slight risk range, indicating that the risk caused by SHMs to the human body can be almost negligible. This study adopted a mixed method to reveal the risk of SHMs pollution and its sources, which provides some reference and technical support for traceability analysis, zoning control, and health risk studies of regional pollutants and is helpful for formulating scientific management measures and targeting control policies.