Ethnic conflicts and their relationship with temperature change in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its vicinity during the past 2000 years

In the context of global warming, the study of climate change and its impacts has garnered significant attention. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with its unique natural environment and socio-cultural significance, plays a crucial role in climate change and the development of the Chinese nation. Investigating the historical interactions, development, and socio-climatic background of the nomadic groups on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and agricultural ethnic groups in eastern China contributes to understanding the intrinsic mechanisms of how climate change affects the social interconnectivity of different ethnic groups. This paper is founded on an analysis of 450 conflict events between these groups, as reflected in ancient Chinese war chronicles and ethnic relations annals, creating a decadal conflict sequence from the Eastern Han to the Qing Dynasty (25AD-1910AD). The study conducts a correlation analysis and phase-wise statistical comparison between the climate research findings and the ethnic conflict sequence, specifically examining their relationship with temperature. The main findings are: (1) From the Eastern Han to the Qing Dynasty, a total of 876 conflicts occurred between the ethnic groups in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its vicinity (averaging 4.6 conflicts per decade), with 62.1% initiated by the Ethnic groups on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and 66.6% won by the Ethnic groups in eastern China; (2) The frequency of conflicts is primarily correlated with temperatures in the Eastern region, with a less distinct correlation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. During overall warmer periods, conflict incidents were more frequent, with a higher proportion initiated by the Ethnic groups on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Conversely, in colder periods, there were fewer conflicts, with an increased proportion initiated by the Ethnic groups in eastern China; (3) Unlike conflicts between the Ethnic groups in northwestern and eastern China, the Ethnic groups on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's external expansion was not a primary objective, indicating that the conflicts were mainly driven by regional economic strength and land productivity. The temperature can reduce land productivity by limiting the growth potential of crops and livestock or by reducing the advance to restrict their production. As a result, water resources, as a condition of land productivity variation, and climate became significant backgrounds for ethnic interactions.