认知洪水风险对住宅物业价值的限制

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104948

Song Shi, Mustapha Bangura, Sumita Ghosh

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们分析了澳大利亚新南威尔士州里士满的住房市场，研究了洪水风险认知对住宅物业价值的影响。利用微观层面的房屋销售数据，我们的研究揭示了市场已将长期洪水风险纳入房产价值。据观察，1-100 年超标概率 (AEP) 洪灾区内的房产价格明显折价 10.8%，AEP 500 洪灾区内的房产折价 4.4%，AEP 1000 洪灾区内的房产没有折价。通过比较 2019 年和 2023 年的洪水地图以及房产的上市时间 (TOM)，可以确认人们的认知局限于 AEP 500 水平。

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Cognitive limits of perceived flood risk on residential property values

Examining cognitive limits in flood risk perception for residential property values, we analyse the Richmond housing market in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Using micro-level home sales data, our study reveals that the market has integrated long-term flood risk into property values. A notable 10.8 % price discount is observed for properties within 1–100 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood zone, 4.4 % for those in an AEP 500 zone, with no discounts for AEP 1000 flood zone properties. Comparisons of 2019 and 2023 flood maps and property's Time-on-Market (TOM) affirm that people's cognitive limits constrain to the AEP 500 level.

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来源期刊

International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

8.70

自引率

18.00%

发文量

688

审稿时长

79 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.