一切照旧的趋势将在很大程度上无法实现 2030 年的全球保护目标。

IF 5.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Ambio Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI:10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6
Ignacio Palomo, Alberto González-García, Paul J Ferraro, Rodan Muradian, Unai Pascual, Manuel Arboledas, James M Bullock, Enora Bruley, Erik Gómez-Baggethun, Sandra Lavorel
{"title":"一切照旧的趋势将在很大程度上无法实现 2030 年的全球保护目标。","authors":"Ignacio Palomo, Alberto González-García, Paul J Ferraro, Rodan Muradian, Unai Pascual, Manuel Arboledas, James M Bullock, Enora Bruley, Erik Gómez-Baggethun, Sandra Lavorel","doi":"10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly \"bend the curve\" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.</p>","PeriodicalId":461,"journal":{"name":"Ambio","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets.\",\"authors\":\"Ignacio Palomo, Alberto González-García, Paul J Ferraro, Rodan Muradian, Unai Pascual, Manuel Arboledas, James M Bullock, Enora Bruley, Erik Gómez-Baggethun, Sandra Lavorel\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly \\\"bend the curve\\\" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":461,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ambio\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ambio\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ambio","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

为了应对气候变化和全球生物多样性的丧失,全世界必须在 2030 年前实现三个重要的国际保护目标:保护 30% 的陆地和海洋区域、阻止并扭转森林丧失的趋势、恢复 3.5 亿公顷退化和毁林地貌。在此,我们(1)估算了这些全球商定目标与 "一切照旧 "趋势之间的差距;(2)确定了过去为实现这些目标而快速转变趋势的实例;(3)将这些过去的趋势转变与不同的杠杆联系起来。我们的研究结果表明,在一切照旧的情况下,世界将无法实现所有三个目标。然而,迅速 "弯道超车 "的趋势转变在过去已经发生,因此应予以鼓励。这些趋势转变与转型变革杠杆有关,其中包括环境治理、经济因素、价值观和知识。要实现 2030 年全球保护目标,迫切需要对趋势转变开展进一步研究,并对基本杠杆采取大胆行动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets.

To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly "bend the curve" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Ambio
Ambio 环境科学-工程:环境
CiteScore
14.30
自引率
3.10%
发文量
123
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Explores the link between anthropogenic activities and the environment, Ambio encourages multi- or interdisciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. Ambio addresses the scientific, social, economic, and cultural factors that influence the condition of the human environment. Ambio particularly encourages multi- or inter-disciplinary submissions with explicit management or policy recommendations. For more than 45 years Ambio has brought international perspective to important developments in environmental research, policy and related activities for an international readership of specialists, generalists, students, decision-makers and interested laymen.
期刊最新文献
Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets. Towards biocultural realism: Connecting conservation with historical ecology and common sense. A European perspective. Shifted baselines: Using the adaptive cycle to assess the post-tsunami mangrove social-ecological system recovery in the Nicobar Islands. Social-ecological system trajectories of peri-urban watersheds based on a spatial analysis of vulnerability components: A case study in Mexico City, 1999-2039. Forest fates: Unraveling the peri-urban social-ecological trajectories in Mexico City's conservation land.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1