Disturbance impacts on Mediterranean forests across climate and management scenarios.

In the climate-vulnerable Mediterranean basin, the severity and frequency of disturbances such as windthrows, droughts and fires are intensifying. Forests are generally resilient, but struggle to adapt to abrupt changes, which can impact their functionality and service provision. Various forest management alternatives aim to reduce forest vulnerability to disturbances, but few studies have evaluated the impact of management alternatives on multiple disturbances and service provision simultaneously. We aimed at filling this gap by conducting simulations of forest dynamics between 2020 and 2100 for 261 pine-dominated forest plots in Catalonia (NE Spain), under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and four management scenarios (business-as-usual, promotion of bioenergy, maximum carbon storage, and ecohydrological forest management). We used the annual simulated output of forest structure and composition and future climatic projections to produce annual estimates of six ecosystem services, and we determined the annual potential impact on forests of the three main abiotic disturbances in the Mediterranean region: fire, droughts, and windstorms. We also evaluated trade-offs and synergies between disturbance impact and the provision of ecosystem services. Our simulations predicted a greater influence of management over climate scenario on the potential impact caused by all disturbances. The business-as-usual scenario consistently predicted higher impacts than the other three management scenarios, regardless of the disturbance considered or the climate scenario (fire impact 175% higher, drought impact 300%; wind impact 130%). The other three management scenarios showed similar patterns in predicted impact, but differences among them increased under more severe climate conditions. In general, there was a positive correlation between the impact by the three disturbance agents, particularly drought and fire (Pearson's r = 0.69). We observed that the provision of some services is highly correlated to disturbance impacts, suggesting that, under certain management schemes, service provision may be compromised due to abiotic disturbance impacts. Our work supports the need for an "adaptation-first" model in which the promotion of forest adaptation is placed at the core of forest management as the only way to ensure forest persistence and the delivery of services.