Using Genomic Heterogeneity to Inform Therapeutic Decisions for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: An Application of the Value of Heterogeneity Framework.

Background and objective: Mutations in KRAS and NRAS are predictive of poor response to cetuximab and panitumumab, two anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) monoclonal antibodies used in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Our objective was to explore the value of using KRAS and NRAS mutation status to inform third-line anti-EGFR therapy for mCRC using the value of heterogeneity (VOH) framework.

Methods: We used administrative data to identify mCRC patients who were potentially eligible for third-line therapy in 2006-2019 in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We compared three alternative stratification policies in place during the study period: the unstratified policy where anti-EGFR therapy was not offered (2006-2009), stratification by KRAS mutation (2009-2016), and stratification by KRAS+NRAS mutation (2016-2019). We used inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting to balance covariates across the three groups. Cost and survival time were calculated using a 3-year time horizon and adjusted for censoring, with bootstrapping to characterize uncertainty. Mean net monetary benefit (NMB) was calculated at a range of threshold values. The VOH of using KRAS and NRAS mutation status to inform treatment selection was calculated as the change in NMB with increasing stratification, under current (static VOH) or perfect (dynamic VOH) information.

Results: We included 2664 patients in the analysis. At a willingness-to-pay of CA$100,000/ life-year gained (LYG), stratification on KRAS mutation status provided a static VOH of CA$1565 per patient; further stratification on KRAS+NRAS provided additional static VOH of CA$594. The static VOH exceeded the marginal cost of genomic testing under both policies.

Conclusions: Stratification of anti-EGFR therapy by KRAS and NRAS mutation status can provide additional value at a threshold of CA$100,000/LYG. There is diminishing marginal value and increasing marginal costs as the policy becomes more stratified. The VOH framework can illustrate the value of subgroup-specific decisions in a comprehensive way, to better inform targeted treatment policies.