Predictive Value of Neurosurgery Applicant Metrics on Resident Academic Productivity.

Background and objectives: Scholarship has been critical to neurosurgery. As grades and board examinations become pass-fail, finding metrics to distinguish applicants coupled with an emphasis on research has led to growth of reported academic output among neurosurgery applicants. We aimed to evaluate applicant factors that associate with an academically productive neurosurgery resident.

Methods: Applicant characteristics were extracted from Electronic Residency Application Service archives from 2 geographically distinct neurosurgical programs for the 2014 to 2015 match cycle. Publications during residency were quantified, and residency careers were examined. Factors associated with residency publications were examined using univariate and multivariate regressions.

Results: A total of 228 United States (US) applicants to neurosurgery were assessed (89% of US neurosurgery applicants), with 173 matching across 93 programs. The average publication number of matched applicants was higher at 6.6 (median: 4, range: 0-43) that of than unmatched applicants (mean: 2.9, median: 1, range: 0-51). A total of 93.1% of publications were substantiated on PubMed review. Matched candidates published 19.3 manuscripts (median: 13, range: 0-120) on average during residency. On univariate analysis, factors associated with higher residency publications included taking a non-degree-granting extra year for research in medical school, consistently high clerkship grades, depth of preresidency research involvement, number of coresidents, program R25 status, and academic output of neurosurgery department leadership. After multivariate correction, the training environment played an outsized role in predicting resident academic output, with program R25 status significantly associated with resident academic output (odds ratio: 1.25, P = .012). Taking an extra research year in medical school approached but was not significant (odds ratio: 1.19, P = .099). Twelve matched international medical school graduates (IMGs) were also assessed (75% of matched IMG neurosurgery applicants). IMGs exhibited higher total publications and conference abstracts than US matched applicants and also published more during residency.

Conclusion: Cultivating an environment that promotes research endeavors is critical for neurosurgical resident academic growth. Preresidency publication number does not predict publication potential during residency.