[Analysis of temporal trends of the incidence rate of tuberculosis in Shaanxi Province].

Objective: To analyze the temporal trends of the incidence rate of tuberculosis (TB) in Shaanxi Province and provide a reference for WHO to control the prevalence of TB effectively. Methods: Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of the incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2022, and the seasonal autoregressive moving average model was used to forecast the incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province to 2030. Results: The incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province decreased from 90.896/100 000 in 2004 to 35.364/100 000 in 2022, showing a general downward trend (AAPC=-7.72%, P<0.001). From 2014 to 2019, the reduction trend slowed down (APC=-0.69%, P=0.814), of which the largest decline occurred from 2019 to 2022 (APC=-13.26%, P=0.010). The predicted incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province from 2020 to 2022 was higher than the reported incidence rate, with the expected incidence rate of 51.342/100 000 in 2022 and 43.468/100 000 in 2030. Conclusion: The incidence rate of TB in Shaanxi Province shows a downward trend from 2004 to 2022, but the decline has shrunk in recent years. It is predicted that the downward trend will continue to slow down by 2030.