Contributions of Stationary and Transient Water Vapor Transports to the Extreme Precipitation Changes Over the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced “south drying-north wetting” extreme precipitation changes over the past half century. The effects of water vapor transport at different timescales on TP extreme precipitation changes remain unexplored. Here, we utilize the reanalysis data sets to quantify the contributions of stationary and transient processes of water vapor transport to the long-term changes in the extreme precipitation (R95p) during wet season (Jun-Jul-Aug-Sep) over the TP and surrounding regions. We find that the daily scale transient processes dominate the dipole trend of extreme precipitation with a contribution of 55.1% in the northern and 79.5% in the southern TP, respectively, whereas the contribution of monthly scale stationary processes is of 19.0% and 20.5%. The long-term changes in extreme precipitation are dominated by the transient dynamic component. We identified the synoptic circulation patterns affecting the changes of R95p over the northern and southern TP by using k-means clustering. The patterns featured with a 500 hPa trough, 200 hPa wind divergence and low transient geopotential height are identified. The frequency of the dominant circulation patterns increases in the northern TP and decreases in the southern TP, which leads to the dipolar changes of extreme precipitation over the TP and surrounding regions.