{"title":"用于未来气候变化条件下洪水频率再分析的综合时变矩 (ITVM) 模型","authors":"Lijun Dong, Xiaohua Dong, Yaoming Ma, Chong Wei, Dan Yu, Huijuan Bo, Jing Guo","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.13012","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The frequency analysis method is commonly used to calculate design floods. Under the double challenge of the non-stationary situation under the changing environment and the inadequate length of flood series, developing a new method to integrate the historical extraordinary floods into the non-stationary frequency analysis is essential. First, the Multi-Model Ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation based on Global Climate Model outputs were employed to drive the Soil & Water Assessment Tool hydrological model for runoff simulation. Then, the Integrated Time-Varying Moment (ITVM) model was developed to re-analyze the design floods based on the Pearson-III distribution. The calibrated SWAT model can satisfactorily simulate the rainfall-runoff relationship in the Yalong River basin. The developed ITVM model is effective to conduct the design flood frequency analysis to cope with the problems of insufficient length and non-stationarity of the flood series. The design flood values of Maidilong station show an obvious increase, with variations of 6.5%–9.4%, 2.9%–12.3%, and 16%–33.7% for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The significant increase of low frequencies (<i>p</i> = 0.2%, <i>p</i> = 0.1%) floods, especially for SSP5-8.5 scenario, requires more attention, as the increased floods may exceed the discharge capacity of the reservoir determined at the design stage.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"17 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13012","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An integrated time-varying moment (ITVM) model for flood frequency re-analysis under future climate change conditions\",\"authors\":\"Lijun Dong, Xiaohua Dong, Yaoming Ma, Chong Wei, Dan Yu, Huijuan Bo, Jing Guo\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jfr3.13012\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The frequency analysis method is commonly used to calculate design floods. Under the double challenge of the non-stationary situation under the changing environment and the inadequate length of flood series, developing a new method to integrate the historical extraordinary floods into the non-stationary frequency analysis is essential. First, the Multi-Model Ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation based on Global Climate Model outputs were employed to drive the Soil & Water Assessment Tool hydrological model for runoff simulation. Then, the Integrated Time-Varying Moment (ITVM) model was developed to re-analyze the design floods based on the Pearson-III distribution. The calibrated SWAT model can satisfactorily simulate the rainfall-runoff relationship in the Yalong River basin. The developed ITVM model is effective to conduct the design flood frequency analysis to cope with the problems of insufficient length and non-stationarity of the flood series. The design flood values of Maidilong station show an obvious increase, with variations of 6.5%–9.4%, 2.9%–12.3%, and 16%–33.7% for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The significant increase of low frequencies (<i>p</i> = 0.2%, <i>p</i> = 0.1%) floods, especially for SSP5-8.5 scenario, requires more attention, as the increased floods may exceed the discharge capacity of the reservoir determined at the design stage.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49294,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Flood Risk Management\",\"volume\":\"17 4\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.13012\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Flood Risk Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jfr3.13012\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jfr3.13012","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
An integrated time-varying moment (ITVM) model for flood frequency re-analysis under future climate change conditions
The frequency analysis method is commonly used to calculate design floods. Under the double challenge of the non-stationary situation under the changing environment and the inadequate length of flood series, developing a new method to integrate the historical extraordinary floods into the non-stationary frequency analysis is essential. First, the Multi-Model Ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation based on Global Climate Model outputs were employed to drive the Soil & Water Assessment Tool hydrological model for runoff simulation. Then, the Integrated Time-Varying Moment (ITVM) model was developed to re-analyze the design floods based on the Pearson-III distribution. The calibrated SWAT model can satisfactorily simulate the rainfall-runoff relationship in the Yalong River basin. The developed ITVM model is effective to conduct the design flood frequency analysis to cope with the problems of insufficient length and non-stationarity of the flood series. The design flood values of Maidilong station show an obvious increase, with variations of 6.5%–9.4%, 2.9%–12.3%, and 16%–33.7% for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The significant increase of low frequencies (p = 0.2%, p = 0.1%) floods, especially for SSP5-8.5 scenario, requires more attention, as the increased floods may exceed the discharge capacity of the reservoir determined at the design stage.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Flood Risk Management provides an international platform for knowledge sharing in all areas related to flood risk. Its explicit aim is to disseminate ideas across the range of disciplines where flood related research is carried out and it provides content ranging from leading edge academic papers to applied content with the practitioner in mind.
Readers and authors come from a wide background and include hydrologists, meteorologists, geographers, geomorphologists, conservationists, civil engineers, social scientists, policy makers, insurers and practitioners. They share an interest in managing the complex interactions between the many skills and disciplines that underpin the management of flood risk across the world.