The current and future global burden of cancer among adolescents and young adults: a population-based study

Background

Compared with children and older adults, the burden of cancer in adolescents and young adults (ages 15–39) is understudied. We aimed to quantify the global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2022 and 2050, and explore patterns in incidence, mortality, and case fatality.

Methods

In this population-based study, we used the GLOBOCAN database to quantify the number of new cases and cancer-related deaths, and corresponding age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs; per 100 000 people aged 15–39 years), in adolescents and young adults. Estimates were quantified for all cancers combined, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, and 33 specific cancer types. Case fatality was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratios. Overall and sex-specific estimates were calculated at the world, regional, human development index (HDI), and income level. We estimated the future cancer burden by applying the GLOBOCAN 2022 rates to sex-specific demographic projections for the year 2050 using the UN World Population Prospects 2019 revision.

Findings

An estimated 1 300 196 cases and 377 621 cancer-related deaths occurred in adolescents and young adults in 2022. Incidence ASRs were 1·9-times higher and mortality ASRs were 1·2-times higher in females than in males (incidence ASR 52·9 vs 28·3; mortality ASR 13·1 vs 10·6). Although the incidence ASR was highest in the high-income countries, the mortality ASR was highest in the low-income countries; as a result, case fatality ranged from 12% in high-income settings to 57% in low-income settings. Of the 33 cancer types included in our analyses, breast or cervical cancer was the most frequently diagnosed cancer and cause of cancer-related death in 163 and 93 countries, respectively; incidence and mortality also varied the most by region for these cancers. Finally, the adolescent and young adult cancer burden globally is projected to increase by about 12% from 2022 to 2050, albeit with declines of 10·7% projected in very high HDI countries. The increase is expected to overwhelmingly impact low HDI settings, where the burden of both cancer cases and deaths is projected to double (a 102·3% increase).

Interpretation

Although the adolescent and young adult cancer burden incidence is highest in the most developed settings, transitioning countries have the poorest outcomes and will face the greatest increases in burden by 2050. These findings act as a reference to the global adolescent and young adult cancer community to inform cancer control priorities and decrease global inequities.

Funding

None.