(Mis)perception in Social Mobility: Optimistic Bias for Personal (but not Societal) Mobility Beliefs.

Cognitive biases affect how people perceive social class mobility. Previous studies suggest that people find it difficult to estimate actual economic social mobility accurately. These results have also noted differences between regions. While in the United States people overestimate actual economic social mobility, in Europe people tend to underestimate it. Across two independent cross-sectional studies, we examined whether cognitive biases operate in the Spanish context and, if so, whether they depend on the type of social mobility. In Study 1 (N = 480), we tested whether people in Spain have an accurate estimation of actual upward economic societal mobility. The results showed that people in Spain have a pessimistic view of upward societal mobility. In Study 2 (N = 274), we analyzed whether people in Spain are more or less optimistic according to the type of social mobility: Personal vs. societal. We found that Spaniards are more optimistic when estimating their own mobility (i.e., personal mobility) than when estimating the mobility of the Spanish society (i.e., societal mobility). Contrary to our predictions, we found that meritocratic beliefs do not play a relevant role in determining any type of social mobility. These results extend previous research on social mobility and its psychosocial consequences. Furthermore, they are well aligned with a new psychosocial perspective suggesting that social mobility is a multidimensional construct. We also discussed the psychosocial implications of this optimistic bias for personal mobility.