Scaling up solar cooking studies: A modeling framework for planning sustainable transition of the bakery sector

The recent rise of energy prices in Europe has directly impacted retail trade such as artisan bakeries. While energy transition is now a tangible aim for the bakery sector, apprehending its near future requires reconciling scales of analysis: from the baking technology to the territory where bakers and bread consumers will interact, based on aspects such as bakery organization, bread type or population dietary behavior. The solar cooking literature typically synthesizes such a fork in the road: the device (solar cooker) has been deeply scrutinized and improved, but wider socio-technical approaches are now required to eventually trigger changes at the sector level. Based on those elements, we thus propose a modeling framework with spatiotemporal granularity that integrates the various scales of analysis for planning sustainable transition of the bakery sector. We then derive decision-aid indicators for assessing information such as bread accessibility & viability, bread turnover (baked bread that is actually consumed), economic return or environmental impact. Finally, we apply this set of tools to the specific example of direct solar baking and demonstrate the various potential applications – regional to continental-scale spatial mapping, geolocated time series, etc. – by producing benchmark results and scenarios across the western European territory.