NIR spectroscopy prediction model for capsaicin content estimation in chilli: A rapid mining tool for trait-specific germplasm screening

Chilli is a widely produced crop, highly valued for its capsaicin content, a key economic trait. Traditional wet chemistry methods for estimating capsaicin are time-taking and laborious, while non-destructive methods like NIRS coupled with chemometrics, offer efficient alternatives, simplifying and accelerating biochemical assessments. This study is the first to develop and validate and tested for applicability of NIRS-based prediction model for capsaicin content in Indian chilli germplasm using MPLS regression. Various mathematical treatments were performed, and the most suited model was selected based on high RSQ_external, RPD and lower SEP values in the external validation set, indicating strong prediction accuracy and minimal error. The model achieved high RSQ_external value of 0.808, RPD value of 2.088 and low SEP value of 3.415 for capsaicin content, demonstrating excellent prediction performance. A paired sample t-test p-value of 0.757 (p > 0.05) showed non-significant difference between wet lab and predicted values, confirming the model’s accuracy. The applicability of the model was validated on fresh harvest germplasm the following year, showing a higher reliability score of 0.949, further confirming model’s reliability. This model would aid in high-throughput, accurate screening of chilli germplasm for capsaicin, accelerating chilli crop improvement programs and the development of new high-capsaicin varieties.