Disentangling the contributions of water vapor, albedo and evapotranspiration variations to the temperature effect of vegetation greening over the Arctic

Vegetation greening is observed over the Arctic, and its feedback to Arctic amplification has attracted increasing attention. Previous studies have primarily focused on the temperature effect of a single environmental variable (e.g., albedo), while the separate contributions of land surface albedo, evapotranspiration (ET) and water vapor remain underexamined. In this study, we develop knowledge-based data-driven models (i.e., path analysis and machine learning) to estimate the temperature effect of vegetation greening and quantify the separate contributions of albedo, ET and water vapor in July and August from 1982 to 2015. The results show a wide range of temperature sensitivity to the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and vegetation greening has led to Arctic warming of 0.76 °C, 0.68 °C, 0.83 °C in July and August and the average of the two months, respectively. Path analysis suggested that vegetation greening affects Arctic air temperature mainly by regulating albedo and water vapor. In July, changes in water vapor contributed the most to the temperature effect of vegetation greening with a contribution of 0.25 ± 0.08 °C, while in August, changes in albedo and water vapor had similar effects with a contribution of 0.21 ± 0.08 °C. In contrast, changes in ET have generated a negligible cooling effect due to small changes in ET. Further analysis shows similar positive contributions of albedo and water vapor in barren, graminoid tundra, prostrate-shrub tundra and erect-shrub, with contributions ranging from 0.18 ± 0.05°C to 0.30 ± 0.11°C, while changes in water vapor dominate vegetation’s temperature effect in wetlands, with contributions ranging from 0.26 ± 0.11°C to 0.32 ± 0.16°C. This study emphasizes the importance of considering multiple driving factors to assess the temperature effect of vegetation greening in a consistent framework and highlights the critical role of water vapor change in addition to the widely examined albedo in explaining Arctic warming.