Traversing the Jevons Paradox: A Study on the Dual Role of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Electricity Conservation and Increased Consumption in an Emerging Economy

In response to escalating global climate change, governments and international organizations were engaged in identifying effective strategies to mitigate carbon emissions. Residential photovoltaic systems emerged as a prominent, clean energy solution, drawing attention for their carbon-neutral electricity generation. Despite this, concerns persisted over whether technological advancements and policy incentives could sustain efforts to conserve energy and reduce emissions, particularly in light of the Jevons Paradox, which posits that technological progress might increase energy consumption and counteract emission reductions. This study, grounded in self-identity theory, examined the influence of residential PV installation on household electricity conservation behavior and assessed the paradox's relevance in this context. Through a survey across three representative Chinese provinces, collecting 996 responses, the research utilized Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to analyze the data. Findings revealed that PV installation and usage among residents bolstered self-consistency, social identity, and identity affirmation, indirectly encouraging electricity conservation. Economic incentives and environmental campaigns were both shown to increase residential PV adoption and subsequent electricity-saving actions. However, economic incentives were found to be more effective, suggesting that economic benefits primarily influenced residents' energy consumption behaviors. Interestingly, a lower inclination for electricity conservation among higher-income residents hinted at the Jevons paradox (or a rebound effect). The study's findings underscore the importance of crafting energy and environmental policies that balance economic incentives with long-term environmental awareness strategies. It also suggests that reinforcing residents' identities as environmental advocates could enhance engagement in green energy practices, offering valuable insights for China and other nations striving to promote residential PV systems and meet emission reduction goals.