考虑生物质热能系统的小波 CNN-LSTM 发电时间序列预测

IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Iet Generation Transmission & Distribution Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI:10.1049/gtd2.13292
William Gouvêa Buratto, Rafael Ninno Muniz, Ademir Nied, Carlos Frederico de Oliveira Barros, Rodolfo Cardoso, Gabriel Villarrubia Gonzalez
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引用次数: 0

摘要

生物质能作为一种可再生能源用于发电,因其可持续性和环境效益而备受关注。然而,间歇性的电力需求给优化热能系统发电带来了挑战。时间序列预测技术可以准确预测生物质的可用性和发电量,对于应对这些挑战至关重要。在这里,小波变换被用于去噪,卷积神经网络(CNN)被用于提取时间序列的特征,长短期记忆(LSTM)被用于执行预测。平均绝对百分比误差等于 0.0148 的结果表明,小波 CNN-LSTM 是一种很有前途的发电预测机器学习方法。此外,本文还讨论了模型评估技术和验证策略在实际应用中评估预测模型性能的重要性。本文的主要贡献在于使用一种混合方法改进预测,该方法优于其他基于深度学习的模型。最后,本文概述了生物质热系统时间序列预测的未来研究方向和潜在进展,以促进可持续能源发电领域的持续创新。
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Wavelet CNN-LSTM time series forecasting of electricity power generation considering biomass thermal systems

The use of biomass as a renewable energy source for electricity generation has gained attention due to its sustainability and environmental benefits. However, the intermittent electricity demand poses challenges for optimizing electricity generation in thermal systems. Time series forecasting techniques are crucial in addressing these challenges by providing accurate predictions of biomass availability and electricity generation. Here, wavelet transform is applied for denoising, convolutional neural networks (CNN) are used to extract features of the time series, and long short-term memory (LSTM) is applied to perform the predictions. The result of the mean absolute percentage error equal to 0.0148 shows that the wavelet CNN-LSTM is a promising machine-learning methodology for electricity generation forecasting. Additionally, this paper discusses the importance of model evaluation techniques and validation strategies to assess the performance of forecasting models in real-world applications. The major contribution of this paper is related to improving forecasting using a hybrid method that outperforms other models based on deep learning. Finally, future research directions and potential advancements in time series forecasting for biomass thermal systems are outlined to foster continued innovation in sustainable energy generation.

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来源期刊
Iet Generation Transmission & Distribution
Iet Generation Transmission & Distribution 工程技术-工程:电子与电气
CiteScore
6.10
自引率
12.00%
发文量
301
审稿时长
5.4 months
期刊介绍: IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution is intended as a forum for the publication and discussion of current practice and future developments in electric power generation, transmission and distribution. Practical papers in which examples of good present practice can be described and disseminated are particularly sought. Papers of high technical merit relying on mathematical arguments and computation will be considered, but authors are asked to relegate, as far as possible, the details of analysis to an appendix. The scope of IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution includes the following: Design of transmission and distribution systems Operation and control of power generation Power system management, planning and economics Power system operation, protection and control Power system measurement and modelling Computer applications and computational intelligence in power flexible AC or DC transmission systems Special Issues. Current Call for papers: Next Generation of Synchrophasor-based Power System Monitoring, Operation and Control - https://digital-library.theiet.org/files/IET_GTD_CFP_NGSPSMOC.pdf
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