A new modeling approach for microplastic drag and settling velocity

Understanding microplastics' (MPs') transport and settling behaviors in aquatic environments is crucial for devising effective management strategies. This study contributes a novel modeling framework to develop accurate and interpretable drag and velocity models for MPs using machine learning techniques. It achieves faster model creation and improved accuracy than traditional methods like theoretical analysis and data fitting. The framework demonstrates high predictive accuracy across different MP types (1D, 2D, 3D, and mixed), with a coefficient of determination CD = 0.86–0.95 for the drag models and CD = 0.92–0.95 for the velocity models. Compared with best-performing empirical approaches, the new drag models exhibit an average reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) by 59% and mean absolute error (MAE) by 62%. Similarly, the velocity models show a mean decrease in RMSE and MAE by 27% and 25%, respectively. Moreover, the framework outperforms commonly used symbolic regression methods, reducing errors by 18%–27%. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the relative density difference and the dimensionless diameter are essential for predicting the settling of all MP types, while the effective shape parameters vary across different MP categories. By providing accurate predictions of MPs' settling dynamics, this study offers insights for developing targeted mitigation strategies to reduce MPs' environmental impacts.