Spatiotemporal analysis of underlying factors in urban transformations: Quantifying the importance of urban plan intentions in the Austin Metropolitan Area, Texas

Urban planning has widely become a key policy tool for managing urban growth. However, understanding the role of urban planning in shaping land development and directing urbanization is still contentious across various socioeconomic and geographical contexts. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of urban spatial transformation in Austin, Texas across three distinct periods: the pre-planning period (1992–2001), the Envision Central Texas (ECT) period (2001–2011), and the Imagine Austin Comprehensive Plan (IACP) period (2011–2019). The findings reveal a marked decline in urban sprawl and the construction of new low-intensity development zones after 2001. Simultaneously, there was a noticeable increase in the percentage of newly transitioned high-intensity developed land. Employing Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) modeling, the study provides a nuanced understanding of how spatially varying planning intentions guided spatial planning practices since the mid-2000s. The results indicate a diminishing influence of traditional factors on urban transformation while the role of planning intentions saw increasing prominence over time. Amongst the different planning intentions, those related to 'development centers' had less impact compared to those tied to protected areas and transport systems. The study establishes that IACP had a profound influence on Austin's urban spatial transformation, primarily due to its more clearly defined and explicit planning intentions compared to ECT. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of urban spatial transformation dynamics, which is vital for future planning initiatives aimed at sustainable urban development.