Explaining woody invasions in riparian systems with agent-based simulations: Implications for conservation management

Riparian forests are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to biological invasions. Effective management strategies require a nuanced understanding of both species invasiveness and environmental conditions, but analysing these interactions is complex. We designed an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to simulate the spatio-temporal spread of Gleditsia triacanthos in the riparian forest of the Esteros de Farrapos e Islas del Río Uruguay National Park; Uruguay. This is a parsimonious and generalisable model that incorporates distinctive features of woody invasions in riparian systems—such as environmental heterogeneity and flooding regimes—as well as common characteristics of woody invaders. Management simulations suggest that if control measures are maintained over time, the abundance of the invader will remain constant at low levels; thus, the invasion can be controlled, even if not completely eradicated. The results also indicate that without control, the invasion process would spread even into unsuitable areas. The SWIRS model facilitates the evaluation of targeted management strategies, ultimately providing a framework to enhance biodiversity conservation efforts in riparian ecosystems.