Trends of diagnostic adverse events in hospital deaths: longitudinal analyses of four retrospective record review studies.

Objectives: To investigate longitudinal trends in the incidence, preventability, and causes of DAEs (diagnostic adverse events) between 2008 and 2019 and compare DAEs to other AE (adverse event) types.

Methods: This study investigated longitudinal trends of DAEs using combined data from four large Dutch AE record review studies. The original four AE studies included 100-150 randomly selected records of deceased patients from around 20 hospitals in each study, resulting in a total of 10,943 patient records. Nurse reviewers indicated cases with potential AEs using a list of triggers. Subsequently, experienced physician reviewers systematically judged the occurrence of AEs, the clinical process in which these AEs occurred, and the preventability and causes.

Results: The incidences of DAEs, potentially preventable DAEs and potentially preventable DAE-related deaths initially declined between 2008 and 2012 (2.3 vs. 1.2; OR=0.52, 95 % CI: 0.32 to 0.83), after which they stabilized up to 2019. These trends were largely the same for other AE types, although compared to DAEs, the incidence of other AE types increased between 2016 (DAE: 1.0, other AE types: 8.5) and 2019 (DAE: 0.8, other AE types: 13.0; rate ratio=1.88, 95 % CI: 1.12 to 2.13). Furthermore, DAEs were more preventable (p<0.001) and were associated with more potentially preventable deaths (p=0.016) than other AE types. In addition, DAEs had more and different underlying causes than other AE types (p<0.001). The DAE causes remained stable over time, except for patient-related factors, which increased between 2016 and 2019 (29.5 and 58.6 % respectively, OR=3.40, 95 % CI: 1.20 to 9.66).

Conclusions: After initial improvements of DAE incidences in 2012, no further improvement was observed in Dutch hospitals in the last decade. Similar trends were observed for other AEs. The high rate of preventability of DAEs suggest a high potential for improvement, that should be further investigated.