Dynamic lifecycle emissions of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in a multi-regional perspective

Innovations in transportation, such as Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs), play a pivotal role in mitigating climate change. This study enhances the Well-to-Wheel (WTW) model to capture the interactions between vehicle emissions and the evolving energy sector by incorporating changes in energy mixes and regional energy trade across Chinese provinces. The enhanced WTW model aims to improve the accuracy of data and models, emphasizing the need to reflect distinct regional energy configurations and emission characteristics precisely. According to a WTW analysis, between 2030 and 2040, vehicles delivered in 2040 are expected to show a reduction in emissions of 55.5% to 62.5% compared to those delivered in 2030 across various provinces in China. Each province experiences varying degrees of reduction, influenced by the transition to cleaner energy sources, cross-regional trading of alternative fuels, and variations in annual vehicle driving distances. By 2040, the WTW emissions from BEVs could decrease by up to 31 g CO₂eq/km, and those from HFCVs by up to 11 g CO₂eq/km. For vehicles delivered in the midpoint year of 2035 during the 2030–2040 period, pronounced disparities in WTW emissions among provinces are observed: Hebei, heavily reliant on coal, exhibits the highest WTW emissions for all vehicle types (69.0 g CO₂eq/km for Sedan-BEVs, 76.7 g CO₂eq/km for SUV-BEVs, 49.2 g CO₂eq/km for Sedan-HFCVs, and 67.9 g CO₂eq/km for SUV-HFCVs), while Yunnan, rich in renewable resources, records the lowest (8.0 g CO₂eq/km for Sedan-BEVs, 8.8 g CO₂eq/km for SUV-BEVs, 1.7 g CO₂eq/km for Sedan-HFCVs, and 2.3 g CO₂eq/km for SUV-HFCVs). Policymaking must address regional differences and aim for long-term sustainability. Tailored policies should accommodate the unique energy scenarios and ecological needs of each province, optimizing cross-regional energy trade for maximum emission reduction. Policy flexibility is vital to integrate new technologies and market changes, ensuring environmental benefits from new energy vehicles are maximized. This study's detailed WTW emission analysis of low-emission vehicles enriches our understanding of regional energy impacts and provides a scientific basis for precise, proactive environmental policies. It stresses the importance of creating climate strategies that consider specific regional energy conditions and priorities, particularly emphasizing efficient cross-regional energy trade to reduce emissions effectively. The refined WTW model and specific policy suggestions address the nuanced approach needed for emission control and energy management in China, approaching or falling below international emission levels.