Assessing the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Exposome Interventions on Alzheimer's Disease: A Review of Agent-Based Modeling and Other Data Science Methods for Causal Inference.

Background: The exposome (e.g., totality of environmental exposures) and its role in Alzheimer's Disease and Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (AD/ADRD) are increasingly critical areas of study. However, little is known about how interventions on the exposome, including personal behavioral modification or policy-level interventions, may impact AD/ADRD disease burden at the population level in real-world settings and the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Methods: We performed a critical review to discuss the challenges in modeling exposome interventions on population-level AD/ADRD burden and the potential of using agent-based modeling (ABM) and other advanced data science methods for causal inference to achieve this. Results: We describe how ABM can be used for empirical causal inference modeling and provide a virtual laboratory for simulating the impacts of personal and policy-level interventions. These hypothetical experiments can provide insight into the optimal timing, targeting, and duration of interventions, identifying optimal combinations of interventions, and can be augmented with economic analyses to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions. We also discuss other data science methods, including structural equation modeling and Mendelian randomization. Lastly, we discuss challenges in modeling the complex exposome, including high dimensional and sparse data, the need to account for dynamic changes over time and over the life course, and the role of exposome burden scores developed using item response theory models and artificial intelligence to address these challenges. Conclusions: This critical review highlights opportunities and challenges in modeling exposome interventions on population-level AD/ADRD disease burden while considering the cost-effectiveness of different interventions, which can be used to aid data-driven policy decisions.