Can government green discourse-behavior congruence mitigate carbon emissions? A polynomial regression with response surface analysis

As global climate change intensifies, the efficacy of governmental environmental policies and their implementation is pivotal for carbon emission control. The alignment between governmental green initiatives and their actions not only affects authority credibility but also determines the success of environmental governance outcomes. Therefore, investigating the congruence between government green discourse and behavior in achieving “dual carbon” objectives is critical for addressing climate change and facilitating systemic reforms. Applying panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022 based on polynomial regression and response surface, this study summarizes three main pathways through which government green discourse-behavior congruence influences carbon emissions: the state of congruence or incongruence, the degree of congruence, and the direction of incongruence. Congruent government green discourse and behavior more effectively reduce carbon emissions intensity than incongruent ones, while a higher degree of congruence leads to more significant reductions. The direction of incongruence also impacts carbon emissions intensity, particularly when government behaviors fall short of its discourses, leading to a higher carbon intensity growth rate. Furthermore, the moderating role of non-governmental entities' green innovation vitality is considered. The results reveal that the green innovation of non-governmental entities can partly substitute for the need for government discourse-behavior congruence in achieving carbon reduction. Specifically, green innovation of research institutions primarily enhances the positive environmental effects of increased government discourse-behavior congruence degree, while corporate green innovation mainly mitigates the negative environmental impacts of government incongruence direction. Consequently, the deep integration of government environmental initiatives and actions is advocated, along with the stimulation of green innovation among various entities, to more effectively combat global climate change. This study not only extends traditional congruence research from the micro level to the meso and macro levels and fills a theoretical gap, but also provides new insights into the process of government green governance worldwide.