Forecasting cardiovascular disease risk and burden in China from 2020 to 2030: a simulation study based on a nationwide cohort.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant public health challenge in China. This study aimed to project the burden of CVD from 2020 to 2030 using a nationwide cohort and to simulate the potential impact of various control measures on morbidity and mortality.

Methods: An agent-based model was employed to simulate annual CVD incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2030. The effects of different prevention and treatment interventions, modelled on international strategies, were also explored.

Results: The study included 106 259 participants. The annual CVD incidence rate is projected to increase from 0.74% in 2021 to 0.97% by 2030, with age-standardised and sex-standardised rates rising from 0.71% to 0.96%. CVD mortality is expected to rise from 0.39% in 2021 to 0.46% in 2024, after which it will stabilise at 0.44% by 2030. Community-based interventions and improved access to inpatient care are predicted to reduce the projected burden of CVD significantly.

Conclusions: The incidence of CVD in China is projected to increase steadily over the next decade, while mortality will plateau after 2024. Comprehensive interventions, including community-based screenings and enhanced healthcare access, could significantly mitigate the CVD burden.

Trial registration number: NCT02536456.