An exploration of potential risk factors for gastroschisis using decision tree learning

Purpose

Despite a wealth of research, the etiology of the abdominal wall defect gastroschisis remains largely unknown. The strongest known risk factor is young maternal age. Our objective was to conduct a hypothesis-generating analysis regarding gastroschisis etiology using random forests.

Methods

Data were from the Slone Birth Defects Study (case-control, United States and Canada, 1998–2015). Cases were gastroschisis-affected pregnancies (n = 273); controls were live-born infants, frequency-matched by center (n = 2591). Potential risk factor data were ascertained via standardized interviews. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) using targeted maximum likelihood estimation.

Results

The strongest associations were observed with young maternal age (aOR 3.4, 95 % CI 2.9, 4.0) and prepregnancy body-mass-index < 30 kg/m² (aOR 3.3, 95 % CI 2.4, 4.5). More moderate increased odds were observed for parents not in a relationship, non-Black maternal race, young paternal age, marijuana use, cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, lower parity, oral contraceptive use, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, daily fast food/processed foods intake, lower poly- or monounsaturated fat, higher total fat, and lower parental education.

Conclusions

Our research provides support for established risk factors and suggested novel factors (e.g., certain aspects of diet), which warrant further investigation.