Understanding Foresight-Policy Interactions: The Role of Institutionalization

Public administration in governments strives to develop forward-looking capacities. Foresight has come to the fore as a set of practices that is mobilized to counter political myopia. Despite this increasing interest in governmental foresight, research suggests that diverging institutional practices, organizational structures, and epistemic cultures between foresight practices and policy-making result in loose coupling. This article aims to contribute to understanding these complicated foresight-policy interactions. To this end, we draw on findings from public administration scholarship. The concept of institutionalization is employed to analyze how foresight aligns with working practices and routines in government. Based on an in-depth case study on the institutionalization of foresight practices within the German Federal Government, we demonstrate that scrutinizing the multiple dimensions of institutionalization helps not only to understand where and why loose ends occur but also provides new insights into some of the causes of the lacking impact. The article does not aim to provide an easy fix. Instead, we want to sensitize foresight practitioners, reduce both disappointment and overstating regarding the role of foresight in policy-making, and provide a nuanced understanding of foresight practices in government.