大海捞针:预测气候对巴西纸浆和造纸工业的影响

IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103393
Roberto Kimura , Bruno Kanieski da Silva , Changyou Sun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

预计气候变化将通过增加野火发生、引发虫害爆发或改变树木的生产力,严重影响林业。为了了解气候变化对森林生产的长期影响,我们调查了森林生产力和土地可用性的波动如何影响巴西纸浆和造纸工业的扩张。我们使用混合整数非线性模型来评估多种气候和土地市场情景下的财务回报、成本和潜在的工厂位置。研究地区是巴西南马托格罗索州,该州是世界上最具吸引力的纸浆和造纸自然资源投资地区之一。我们的研究结果表明,该地区需要在未来几十年内将其人工林面积从目前的912,371公顷扩大至少586,166公顷,以为新工厂提供足够的纸浆木材,并抵消气候变化造成的潜在生产力损失。纸浆生产成本预计每年增长0.61%(或在未来25年增长16.4%)。这些结果突出了气候和土地利用变化导致人工林生产力损失的相关风险。我们评估了土地利用变化率在市场发展中的重要性。如果保持不变,该行业的成功可能会受到限制,从而减少该地区的正外部性。此外,我们在这里提出的模型可以扩展到其他工业问题(如木屑颗粒厂和生物炭收集点),并评估不同的气候情景(如干旱或野火等气候冲击)。
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A needle in a haystack: Projecting the climate impacts on Brazil's pulp and paper industry
Climate change is expected to severely impact the forestry industry by increasing wildfire occurrence, triggering pest outbreaks, or modifying trees' productivity. To understand the long-term impact of climate change on forest production, we investigated how fluctuations in forest productivity and land availability would impact the expansion of Brazil's pulp and paper industry. We used a Mixed Integer Nonlinear Model to evaluate the financial returns, costs, and potential mill locations under multiple climates and land market scenarios. The study area was the state of Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil, which is among the world's most attractive natural resources investments in pulp and paper. Our results showed that the region needs to expand its plantation forest area by at least 586,166 ha from the current land base of 912,371 ha in the upcoming decades to supply enough pulpwood for incoming mills and offset potential productivity losses driven by climate change. Pulpwood production cost is expected to increase by 0.61 % annually (or 16.4 % in the next 25 years). These results highlight the risks associated with losses in the productivity of plantation forests due to the changes in climate and land use. We assessed the importance of land use change rate in the market development. If it remains unchanged, the industry's success could be restrained, reducing positive externalities in the region. Furthermore, the model we proposed here can be extended to other industrial problems (e.g., wood pellet mills and biochar collection points) and assess different climate scenarios (e.g., climate shocks like droughts or wildfires).
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来源期刊
Forest Policy and Economics
Forest Policy and Economics 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
9.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
148
审稿时长
21.9 weeks
期刊介绍: Forest Policy and Economics is a leading scientific journal that publishes peer-reviewed policy and economics research relating to forests, forested landscapes, forest-related industries, and other forest-relevant land uses. It also welcomes contributions from other social sciences and humanities perspectives that make clear theoretical, conceptual and methodological contributions to the existing state-of-the-art literature on forests and related land use systems. These disciplines include, but are not limited to, sociology, anthropology, human geography, history, jurisprudence, planning, development studies, and psychology research on forests. Forest Policy and Economics is global in scope and publishes multiple article types of high scientific standard. Acceptance for publication is subject to a double-blind peer-review process.
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