Increased spread risk of citrus long-horned beetle [Anoplophora chinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)] under climate change in Türkiye: Implications for management

Climate change and increasing global trade are facilitating species’ introduction and establishment outside their native ranges. Predicting likely introductions and spread areas could help to lower the introduction and spread risk of new species through biosecurity measures. The citrus long-horned beetle (Anoplophora chinensis) is a polyphagous species native to Asia and causes significant damage to several tree species. Anoplophora chinensis (ANOLCN hereafter) has been introduced and spread to various geographical regions, including Türkiye. It is regulated as a quarantine pest in Türkiye; however, continuous range expansion is being observed in the country. This study predicted habitat suitability of ANOLCN in Türkiye under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios by using optimized MaxEnt model. The MaxEnt model was trained and tested with 606 global occurrence records and 13 bioclimatic variables (bio1, bio2, bio3, bio4, bio5, bio6, bio8, bio9, bio12, bio13, bio14, bio15, and bio17). Habitat suitability was predicted for current (1979–2000), and future (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100) periods. The model predicted habitat suitability with high accuracy (AUC >0.97). Annual mean temperature (bio1), mean diurnal range (bio2), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of wettest month (bio13) were predicted as the most important variables affecting habitat suitability of ANOLCN. Results indicated that western and eastern coastal areas of Black Sea region, and some coastal areas in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas have highly suitable habitats for ANOLCN. Highly suitable habitat will expand by 5.99–69.33% under SSP1-2.6 and 13.31–45.78% under SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios compared to current climate. The areas with highly suitable habitat have intensive citrus, hazelnut and olive cultivations, indicating higher and stronger ANOLCN infestation in the future. Therefore, timely and effective management strategies, including strict quarantine regulations are needed to combat the ecological and economic threats posed by ANOLCN in the future.