Multiscale Stochastic Modeling of Backward Erosion Piping Initiation, From Grain Kinetics to Weibull Statistics. Part II: Model Validation and Applications

Backward erosion piping (BEP) is a leading internal erosion mechanism for flood protection system failures. A model capable of predicting critical hydraulic conditions for BEP initiation at multiple scales while also incorporating soil variability is a pressing need. This study formulates and validates a novel multiscale probabilistic BEP initiation framework with incorporation of soil variability. The framework is based on a grain-scale probabilistic model and the weakest link theory, and the theory of rate processes. The multiscale framework proposed herein is validated through a wide range of available experimental data from independent sources, encompassing tests performed at multiple scales. Following calibration with small-scale experimental data, the model demonstrates accurate prediction of critical hydraulic gradients at larger scales (3–6 orders of magnitude difference), including the ability to capture the grain size dependence of BEP initiation and providing uncertainty estimates. A systematic analysis is performed to uncover the effects of different soil properties on multiscale critical hydraulic conditions.