Mohammad Nayeem Hasan, Mahbubur Rahman, Meraj Uddin, Shah Ali Akbar Ashrafi, Kazi Mizanur Rahman, Kishor Kumar Paul, Mohammad Ferdous Rahman Sarker, Farhana Haque, Avinash Sharma, Danai Papakonstantinou, Priyamvada Paudyal, Md Asaduzzaman, Alimuddin Zumla, Najmul Haider
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引用次数: 0
摘要
2023年,孟加拉国经历了最大规模和最致命的登革热病毒(DENV)爆发,报告了有史以来最高的年度病例和死亡人数。从历史上看,大多数病例发生在首都达卡。我们的目的是描述DENV在孟加拉国的地理传播特征。从2023年1月1日至12月31日,我们从卫生和家庭福利部管理信息系统中提取并分析了登革热病例和死亡的每日数据。我们执行了一个广义线性混合模型,以确定分区每日登革热计数与各种地理和气象协变量之间的关联。2023年报告的登革热病例数是过去23年记录的总数的1.3倍(321,179对244,246),死亡人数是过去23年记录的总死亡人数的两倍(1705对849)。在2023年的1705例死亡中,67.4% (n = 1015)在入院后一天内死亡。达卡南部各区每千人登革热发病率较高(2.30 vs. 0.50, p
The 2023 fatal dengue outbreak in Bangladesh highlights a paradigm shift of geographical distribution of cases.
In 2023, Bangladesh experienced its largest and deadliest outbreak of the Dengue virus (DENV), reporting the highest-ever recorded annual cases and deaths. Historically, most of the cases were recorded in the capital city, Dhaka. We aimed to characterize the geographical transmission of DENV in Bangladesh. From 1 January-31 December 2023, we extracted and analyzed daily data on dengue cases and deaths from the Management Information System of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. We performed a generalized linear mixed model to identify the associations between division-wise daily dengue counts and various geographical and meteorological covariates. The number of dengue cases reported in 2023 was 1.3 times higher than the total number recorded in the past 23 years (321,179 vs. 244,246), with twice as many deaths than the total fatalities recorded over the past 23 years (1705 vs. 849). Of the 1,705 deaths in 2023, 67.4% (n = 1,015) died within one day after hospital admission. The divisions southern to Dhaka had a higher dengue incidence/1000 population (2.30 vs. 0.50, p <0.01) than the northern divisions. Festival-related travel along with meteorological factors and urbanization are likely to have contributed to the shift of dengue from Dhaka to different districts in Bangladesh.
期刊介绍:
Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.